Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a narrow lead over U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a new poll as early voting in Texas’ Republican runoff approaches.
A survey released May 5 by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found Paxton with 48% support among likely GOP runoff voters, compared to 45% for Cornyn, a margin within the poll’s stated error range.
The findings come less than two weeks before early voting begins on May 18 and runs through May 22, according to the Texas Secretary of State website, with the runoff election set for May 26. The deadline to apply for a mail-in ballot is May 15.
The poll, conducted between April 28 and May 1 among 1,200 likely runoff voters, suggests a tightly contested race. Just 7% of respondents said they remain undecided, indicating turnout could be decisive.
“Just 7% of people who plan to vote haven’t decided, suggesting the candidate who is able to turn out his voters will determine the winner,” said Renée Cross of the Hobby School.
The contest follows a March primary in which neither candidate secured a majority, forcing a runoff. Cornyn finished slightly ahead in that round, while Paxton trailed closely behind.
The new survey indicates Paxton may be consolidating support from voters who backed other candidates in March, particularly those who supported Wesley Hunt. According to the poll, a majority of Hunt’s voters now favor Paxton.
The candidates’ coalitions also reflect differing priorities. Among Paxton supporters, immigration and border security ranked as the top issue, while Cornyn voters were more likely to cite inflation and cost-of-living concerns.
Education levels also appeared to divide the electorate. Cornyn led among voters with a four-year college degree, while Paxton held a larger advantage among those without one, according to the survey.
Despite Paxton’s edge, the race remains effectively even given the +/- 2.83% margin of error.
The survey also found that both candidates’ supporters are largely unified, with more than 90% of each candidate’s March voters planning to remain loyal in the runoff.
Beyond the Senate race, the poll showed Mayes Middleton leading Chip Roy by nine points in the Republican runoff for attorney general. In the railroad commissioner race, incumbent Jim Wright led challenger Bo French, though a large share of voters remained undecided.
