The White House recently pointed to a sharp nationwide decline in murders, stating that restoring law and order has produced measurable gains in public safety under President Donald Trump.
Preliminary data show homicides fell dramatically in 2025, continuing a multi-year drop and positioning the U.S. for what analysts call the lowest murder rate on record in modern law enforcement or public health data going back to 1900, per the Council on Criminal Justice.
When law and order is restored, safety follows.
ALL WE NEEDED WAS A NEW PRESIDENT. pic.twitter.com/JT6SoJEHNj
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 28, 2026
National Trends and Data Sources
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program defines murder and nonnegligent manslaughter as the willful (nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another. This excludes deaths caused by negligence, suicide, accident, or justifiable homicide.
Data from the Council on Criminal Justice, analyzing 35 large cities that provided consistent 2025 figures, showed reported homicides dropped 21% from 2024 to 2025, equating to 922 fewer killings. This marks the largest single-year percentage drop on record.
If final nationwide FBI data align, the 2025 homicide rate is projected near 4.0 per 100,000 residents — potentially the lowest ever recorded.
Preliminary FBI figures through early 2026 also indicate continued declines, with murder down significantly in the most recent reporting period.
State-Level Rankings
Mississippi recorded the highest murder rate in 2024 at nearly 20 per 100,000 residents, followed by Louisiana, Alabama, New Mexico, and Tennessee, according to CDC data on homicide mortality.
New Hampshire had the lowest rate, followed by Idaho, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Utah.
Texas reported a 2024 homicide rate of approximately 5.9 per 100,000 (CDC) or 5.2 in FBI-aligned figures, placing it roughly mid-pack nationally — lower than several Southern states but above the lowest-rate Northeastern and Western states.
Broader Factors
Experts note that murder trends involve complex elements including policing strategies, clearance rates, community violence intervention, economic conditions, and substance abuse patterns.
The Council on Criminal Justice emphasized that determining exact causes “requires a rigorous examination of the data” and cautioned against attributing shifts to any single policy.
Implementation of specific federal or state measures under the current administration, along with ongoing local efforts, will be tracked as full 2025 FBI data are released later this year.
