A demographic study published in the medical journal Lancet forecasts an alarming population scenario due to declining fertility rates.
Rather than suffering a crisis of impending overpopulation, the world may see an irreversible decline in human reproduction.
Demographers funded by the Gates Foundation concluded that “continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth.”
The study projects a global population peak of 9.73 billion in 2064, followed by a decline to 8.79 billion in 2100.
While populations will continue to grow in parts of Africa, Asian countries like China and India are projected to join the ranks of European countries and Japan, which already struggle with falling birth rates.
China’s population could be halved by the end of this century, losing approximately 668 million people. For its part, India may lose 290 million.
Japan, Thailand, and Spain, in addition to 20 other countries, are projected to lose more than 50% of their populations according to the study’s model.
Some population collapses will happen faster than others. For instance, Russia could lose up to one-third of its current population by 2050.
In contrast, Nigeria will likely continue to increase through the remainder of the century. However, its population growth will supposedly slow as it becomes the second-most populated country globally.
By the end of the century, the U.S. population could dip as low as 248 million, losing its current place as the third-most populated country.
Demographers have long identified urbanization as a critical factor in birth rate decline. In rural agricultural societies, the economics of children function differently.
Children add value to families and land through the performance of agricultural labor. In urban communities, children operate as an expense.
Adjusted for inflation, it costs approximately $267,000 on average to raise a single child into adulthood in the United States.
