A survey released February 9 by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found Paxton leading the Republican primary with 38% support among likely voters, compared with 31% for incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and 17% for U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. Twelve percent were undecided.
The poll surveyed 550 likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.18 percentage points for the primary samples.
In hypothetical May runoff matchups, Paxton leads Cornyn 51% to 40% and Hunt 56% to 33%, while Cornyn leads Hunt 46% to 39%, the survey found.
Among Republican primary voters, 72% view Paxton favorably, compared with 61% for Cornyn and 70% for Hunt. Fifty-five percent said they would be more likely to back a candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump, who has not made an endorsement in the race.
On the Democratic side, Crockett leads state Rep. James Talarico 47% to 39%, with 12% undecided, among 550 likely Democratic primary voters. Crockett’s favorability rating stands at 84%, compared with 79% for Talarico.
Crockett draws strong backing from Black voters, 71% to 13%, and from voters without a four-year college degree, while Talarico performs better among white voters and those with four-year or advanced degrees, according to the poll’s demographic breakdown.
Renée Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School, said in a statement that “Supporters of both Paxton and Crockett told us they are looking for a ‘fighter’ as one of the top qualities they want in a candidate.”
Looking ahead to November, the poll suggests narrow general election matchups. In six hypothetical contests, Republican candidates led Democratic opponents by margins ranging from 1 to 4 percentage points — all within the overall survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
The survey of likely November 2026 voters was conducted January 20 through January 31 in English and Spanish.
The primary election is on March 3, with early voting beginning February 17.
