Collin County, home to fast-growing suburbs like Frisco, Plano, and Prosper north of Dallas, is seeing elevated inventory and declining home values in 2026.
According to data cited by analyst Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure App, inventory has spiked 62% above the long-term average to over 4,300 listings.
Zillow data as of March 31, 2026, shows the average home value in Collin County at $485,017, down 6.1% year-over-year, with homes going pending in around 43 days.
The shift follows the pandemic-era boom. Higher mortgage rates and increased supply have contributed to softer demand in a market that favored sellers in recent years.
Gerli highlighted the change in a May 10, 2026, post on X: “Collin County, TX is in the midst of a stiff housing correction in 2026. Inventory has spiked 62% above the long-term average, to over 4,300 listings. This high supply is causing values to drop, down -6.1% over the last year already.”
Gerli noted that the current year-over-year decline is the largest the county has seen since at least 2000. He added that some sellers in cities like Frisco, Prosper, and Plano are taking losses on homes purchased near the 2022-2023 peak.
1) What's very interesting about Collin County – comprising the wealthy suburbs north of Dallas – is that it hasn't experienced a housing correction like this in the last 25 years.
The current -6.1% YoY correction is the area's largest since at least 2000.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 10, 2026
Realtor.com data, as of early May 2026, reports a median listing price of $500,000, down 4.76% year-over-year. Active listings stand at 12,244, up 8.32% from the prior year, with a median days-on-market of 40.
Local reports indicate rising inventory, longer days on market, and more price reductions across the county. Redfin data for March 2026 showed a median sale price of $440,000, down 7.2% year-over-year.
Sellers in premium suburbs face pressure amid the increased supply. Broader DFW trends reflect similar softening in several counties, though population growth and job inflows continue to support long-term demand.
Gerli described the environment as favorable for buyers: “Ultimately, this is great news for North Texas buyers. This could finally be the time to swoop in and make below-list-price offers.”
The correction comes after years of rapid appreciation driven by migration into North Texas. Reventure App data and local market updates point to a return toward more balanced conditions.
Property appraisals and taxes remain topics of discussion for residents as market values adjust.
Forecasts from sources like Realtor.com project modest appreciation for the broader market in 2026, though near-term softness persists in areas with high inventory.
