The White House on Thursday rejected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s assertion that there is “no verifiable evidence” President Donald Trump’s immigration and crime enforcement policies are making the country safer, pointing to national crime data showing a sharp decline in homicides in 2025.
In a statement released January 8, the White House said independent crime statistics indicate the United States experienced the largest one-year drop in homicides on record last year, contradicting Walz’s comments and reinforcing the administration’s argument that stricter enforcement policies are contributing to improved public safety outcomes.
According to multiple analyses of preliminary law enforcement data, the U.S. is poised to close 2025 with a roughly 17–20% reduction in homicides compared to the prior year — surpassing previous record declines. Crime analysts say the decrease reflects a broader pullback in violent crime following the pandemic-era surge, with major cities reporting some of their lowest homicide totals in decades.
While final nationwide crime figures from the FBI are not expected until later in 2026, independent analysts using the Real-Time Crime Index — which compiles data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies — have consistently reported year-over-year declines in killings, aggravated assaults, and other violent offenses.
Trump Administration Ties Crime Declines to Enforcement Strategy
The Trump administration argues that targeted federal enforcement has played a role in those trends, particularly in cities where federal agencies have taken an expanded role in crime and immigration operations.
In Washington, D.C., U.S. Marshals Service Director Gadyaces Serralta told local media in November that violent crime declined sharply following a coordinated federal crackdown involving the Marshals Service, the National Guard, and local police. Serralta said arrests increased while homicides, robberies, and carjackings fell during the operation’s first 100 days.
Federal immigration agencies have cited recent enforcement actions as additional examples of public safety gains. In Florida, Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced that a 10-day operation in November resulted in the removal of more than 230 undocumented immigrants convicted of serious crimes, including sex offenses and violent felonies.
The White House also claimed that 70% of the more than 650,000 illegal aliens deported since Trump took office have been charged with or convicted of crimes.
Data Remains Preliminary as Political Debate Continues
The homicide figures cited by analysts are based on preliminary reporting, with the FBI’s official nationwide crime data not expected to be released until the second quarter of 2026. Current estimates reflect post-pandemic normalization, changes in policing and court operations, and broader crime-cycle trends.
Administration officials argue that declining fentanyl trafficking, fewer on-duty law enforcement deaths, and reduced public concern about crime support their case for stricter enforcement policies.
Walz’s remarks came amid a broader political debate over immigration and federal crime initiatives, with Democrats questioning the administration’s conclusions and Republicans pointing to recent crime trends as evidence that enforcement-focused strategies are producing measurable results.
Federal agencies including the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and the United States Marshals Service say public safety efforts will remain a central focus moving into 2026.