U.S. General Expects War in Two Years

A general in the United States military is warning of impending war with China by 2025.

Air Force Gen. Michael A. Minihan, the commander of Air Mobility Command, wrote in a memo that conditions will be ripe for war for Chinese leader Xi Jinping in 2025.

“I hope I am wrong,” Minihan wrote in a memo first reported by NBC News. “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”

Minihan’s memo addresses air wing commanders under his command and other Air Force operational commanders.

In the memo, Minihan also lists orders that those under his command must meet monthly.

Towards the end of February, Minihan expects for weapons qualifications to “fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most,” the memo said. “Aim for the head.”

Minihan’s assessment offers a much different and shorter timeline than Pentagon officials.

According to the 2022 National Defense Strategy, the Department of Defense is focused on four primary areas to ensure the democratic values of the United States.

Those four areas are:

1. “Defending the homeland, paced to the growing multi-domain threat posed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
2. Deterring strategic attacks against the United States, Allies, and partners.
3. Deterring aggression, while being prepared to prevail in conflict when necessary, prioritizing the PRC challenge in the Indo-Pacific, then the Russia challenge in Europe.
4. Building a resilient Joint Force and defense ecosystem.”

The document lists Russia as a challenge in Europe but prioritizes China in the Indo-Pacific.

“The Department will act urgently to sustain and strengthen deterrence, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as our most consequential strategic competitor and the pacing challenge for the Department,” the document reads.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, told reporters in November that he believes China’s invasion of Taiwan poses too great of a threat.

“I think he [Xi] evaluates things on cost, benefit, and risk,” Milley suggested. “I think that he would conclude that an attack on Taiwan in the near future will be an excessive amount of risk, and would end in a strategic, really, debacle for the Chinese military, and I think it would throw off their kind of dream of being the No.1 economic and military power and so on.”