The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced updated borrowing estimates Monday, projecting $574 billion in privately held net marketable borrowing during the January–March 2026 quarter, according to new financing estimates released February 2.
Treasury said the projection assumes an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. The estimate is $3 billion lower than what Treasury projected in November 2025, largely due to a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower expected net cash flows.
Excluding the impact of the higher starting cash balance, Treasury said borrowing for the first quarter would have been $19 billion higher than the November estimate.
For the April–June 2026 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $109 billion in privately held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $900 billion.
Treasury also released revised data for the October–December 2025 quarter, showing it borrowed $550 billion in privately held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $873 billion. That figure came in $20 billion below Treasury’s November estimate of $569 billion, primarily due to stronger-than-expected net cash flows. Adjusting for the higher-than-assumed ending cash balance, actual borrowing was $42 billion lower than previously projected.
The accompanying Sources and Uses Reconciliation Table outlines recent borrowing activity, cash balance changes, and revisions to prior estimates, including updated projections for the first half of 2026.
Treasury said additional financing details related to its Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, February 4, 2026.