A new study is hinting at a significant demographic shift — families with young children moving away from cities to rural or suburban areas.
An analysis of U.S. Census data by the Economic Innovation Group (EIG), a research and advocacy organization, found that between July 2020 and July 2021, large urban counties saw a 3.7% decline in their population of under-five children, representing a reduction of over 235,000 children. The same trend continued into 2022, albeit at a slower rate of 1.8%.
“Large urban areas are losing families with young children substantially faster than they are losing population overall. While the under-five population in such counties fell 6.1 percent between April 2020 and July 2022, the overall population declined by just 0.9 percent,” reads one of the study’s key findings.
As previously reported by The Dallas Express, big city areas in the United States have been enduring a number of negative quality-of-life factors, such as rising crime and a lack of cleanliness, however, EIG’s study did not explore the push factors at play in such environments.
News reports harped on the trend of families with children moving out of cities during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the latest analysis suggests a longer-lasting dynamic.
“I thought we’d see a much sharper bounce back. … That raises the question of whether this is a potentially permanent trend and something that cities have to reckon with,” said EIG research associate Connor O’Brien, according to NPR KERA.
The quality of public school systems could also be playing a role. Dallas ISD, for instance, has seen a steady drop in enrollment over the last decade amid poor student achievement outcomes, and Dallas proper has seen its own flagging population buck a regional trend of population growth.
“Traditional K-12 schools are hemorrhaging enrollment due to growing concerns over content, quality, and the politicization of the classroom. This steep decline is evidence that parents are ready for something different, something better,” claimed James Quintero of the Texas Public Policy Foundation in a previous statement to The Dallas Express.
Still, it is likely a confluence of factors contributing to the decisions of parents with young children to stay away from bigger cities.
“The choices of young families proved especially sensitive to the economic changes and disruptions of the last three years. While labor markets are normalizing and workers are returning to many downtown urban cores, families with kids have thus far not returned to the country’s largest urban counties,” concludes the study.
