U.S. immigration has decreased significantly over the past year, according to new estimates from the Census Bureau.
New population estimates released in January show net international migration, the difference between people entering and leaving the country, fell to about 1.26 million from mid-2024 to mid-2025, down from roughly 2.73 million the year before, according to Census Bureau data cited in a January 27 analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies.
The estimates cover the final six months of former President Joe Biden’s term and the first six months of Donald Trump’s presidency.
The Census Bureau projects that net international immigration could fall further, to about 321,000 from mid-2025 to mid-2026, if recent trends continue. The slowdown to fewer foreign-born arrivals and increased emigration, including fewer refugees admitted and a decline in releases at the southern border, according to the analysis.
“The Bureau’s new estimate of net international migration indicates that the flow of illegal immigrants into the country responds to policy choices and is not uncontrollable, as was so often asserted, including during the Biden administration,” Steven Camarota, the Center’s director of research, said in a statement. He added, “Some of Biden’s changes at the end of his term and Trump’s policies in the first part of this year fundamentally changed the level of illegal immigration.”
Net international migration includes legal immigrants, illegal aliens, and U.S.-born citizens moving into or out of the country. Even with the slowdown, overall population growth continued.
The Census Bureau reported that “natural increase” — births minus deaths — totaled about 519,000 annually, contributing to nearly 1.8 million people in total population growth from mid-2024 to mid-2025.
Some Census Bureau estimates showed the U.S. population grew by about 0.5% in 2025, roughly half the growth rate recorded in 2024, according to the Associated Press.
Immigration accounted for about 1.3 million people added last year, down from 2.8 million in 2024, the report said, without distinguishing between legal and illegal immigration.
Separate analyses based on the federal government’s Current Population Survey have also suggested a decline in the foreign-born population during 2025.
One analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies estimated that the total foreign-born population fell by about 2.2 million from January to August 2025, including a preliminary estimate of 1.6 million fewer illegal aliens, according to prior reporting by The Dallas Express.
At the same time, some parts of the legal immigration system could expand.
A House-passed federal spending bill for fiscal year 2026 would give the Department of Homeland Security authority to raise caps on H-2B temporary worker visas if it determines U.S. businesses cannot meet labor needs domestically. The bill has not yet been taken up by the Senate, according to reporting by The Dallas Express.
Census Bureau researchers have said the latest estimates reflect declining arrivals and increased departures, but cautioned that population estimates rely on administrative data and projections rather than a full census count.
“They do reflect recent trends we have seen in out-migration, where the numbers of people coming in is down and the numbers going out is up,” Eric Jensen, a senior research scientist at the Census Bureau, recently said per AP.