Now that James Talarico has returned from a curious two-week absence from the campaign trail, one presumes that the remaining three weeks will focus on things that are substantially more conventional. As he rejoins the battle against Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate seat to serve as John Cornyn’s successor, he can resume the enjoyment of factors that have smiled on him for months.
It is easy (and probably wise) to scoff at his lead in the polls, but his money advantage is real. After heavy spending on ads that have blanketed the state since June, the Talarico campaign is now met in the spending wars by a Paxton campaign buoyed by several political action committees. But by November 3, Talarico will have spent far more, while enjoying the fawning adulation of a media culture eager to aid his dream of turning Texas blue.
The polls will probably tighten, as they often do. In Texas and around the nation, there is a long track record of pollsters showing large Democrat leads, only to see those leads dwindle or even vanish in a Republican win come Election Day. Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss to Ted Cruz in 2018 gives the impression that another surprise is possible in Texas, but the state’s recent electoral landscape and Talarico’s legislative track record make his win a massive bridge to cross.
An anti-gun, anti-meat, anti-oil cheerleader for child transsexualism faces an uphill climb in a state that has flaunted its red-state credentials of late. In 2024, President Trump trounced Kamala Harris by nearly fourteen points, his largest margin in three campaigns, while Senator Ted Cruz dispatched Colin Allred by roughly nine.
The last time Texas voters weighed in on statewide races, Governor Greg Abbott, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Attorney General Paxton enjoyed margins averaging around ten points. So what has supposedly changed that would shift the landscape in 2026? While no state office seems likely to flip, the Democrat hope is for some dynamic in the Paxton-Talarico matchup to yield a stunning outlier result.
It is not exactly deep analysis to say that the result will be determined by the number of voters showing up at the polls. But voter turnout is a wild card in this race due to perceived factors that may suppress it on both sides.
I have written and spoken many words about the vengeful tantrum under way from Republicans who cannot handle the voter rejection of John Cornyn. The Senator himself is at the apex of this performative exercise in sour grapes, and one wonders if that might cost Paxton some necessary votes in a close race.
But for all the attention paid to those GOP tensions, Cornyn has been almost amiable compared to the cold shoulder Talarico is getting from the candidate he vanquished.
There was no runoff necessary as he defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett by a tidy six points in March. The congratulatory grace we usually see afterward lasted about a day. After calling on Democrats to “rally around our nominees,” Crockett made clear there was one nominee she was not going to support in the way party unity would dictate.
Talarico was conspicuously absent from the list of candidates she was getting behind. Flashing a Cornyn-style resentment of voters, she called her result “a racist race,” adding that she did not see excitement for Talarico in the black community. If anyone wondered if she might lift a finger to create some of that excitement for the nominee of her party, the answer became clear as she explained that her time was better spent on black candidates further down the ballot.
So now it becomes a game of speculative math. If we begin with the expected advantage Paxton has as a Republican, the intrigue develops as we assess which is the more damaging factor – Cornyn’s snub of Paxton or Crockett’s snub of Talarico?
Just as I have expected the vast majority of Cornyn voters to get over their wounds and realize the necessity of unifying behind Paxton, I would thoroughly expect Texas Democrats to similarly get past their internal squabbles. Some may realize that Crockett would have been the better candidate, not as vulnerable to attacks on gender and climate extremism. But I do not expect many black Democrats to need Jasmine Crockett’s thumbs-up to get them to the polls.
Ultimately, the vast majority of Texas Democrats will realize that their obligation is to mobilize to beat Paxton, and that’s what they will try to do. The good news for Paxton is that there will not be enough of them.
The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Dallas Express.
Mark Davis is a talk show host for Salem Media: 660amtheanswer.com. X: @markdavis
The views and opinions expressed in this op-ed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of The Dallas Express, its editors, or its staff.
