Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has a comfortable lead over his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke just days before early voting begins in Texas, according to a poll released Friday by the University of Texas Politics Project.
Abbott holds an 11-point advantage, 54% to 43%, among “likely voters” over O’Rourke in the poll, as he appears poised to win his third term as Texas governor.
The 11-point advantage is one of the widest Abbott has registered with likely voters in polls.
Abbott had a 5-point advantage in the last UT poll, released around early September, though that was among “registered” rather than “likely” voters.
Jim Henson, director of the UT Politics Project, said the results “underline the contrast between the last midterm in 2018 and 2022.”
“O’Rourke’s assets as a candidate were amplified by a national dynamic in 2018 that boosted Democrats,” Henson said, referring to O’Rourke’s narrow loss against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. “But the results in this poll illustrate how he’s facing a very different national environment in 2022 that’s hurting rather than helping his efforts to close the baseline Republican advantages in statewide elections.”
Democratic President Joe Biden remains highly unpopular in Texas, with 52% of registered voters disapproving of his job performance and only 39% approving.
Another critical reason for Abbott’s strong advantage appears to be linked to the issues that are most important to voters, according to Henson.
“While more than half of Republican voters say immigration and border security is the most important issue area informing their vote, Democratic voters’ attention is divided among a list of several issues, topped by abortion,” he said.
Immigration and border security, one of the central focuses of Abbott’s campaign, was cited as the top issue facing Texas by 32% of overall respondents. The state’s economy was second with 14%, followed by abortion with 13%, while no other issue garnered double digits.
Likely voters indicated they trust Abbott more than O’Rourke to do a better job on the border and the economy by double-digit margins. While the candidates are equally split on abortion, with 44% saying they trust Abbott more on the abortion issue and 44% saying the same for O’Rourke.
While 6 out of ten Republican respondents were united in selecting immigration-related issues as their most important issue, Democrats are divided on their top issues.
Just over one-fourth of Democrats cited abortion as their most important issue, while gun violence was second at 16%, followed by the environment and climate change with 13% each and health care with 10%.
Abbott is ahead by double digits among men but only 2 points among women.
More notably, the poll shows likely Hispanic voters are evenly divided between the two gubernatorial candidates at 48% each.
Only 7% of respondents said they were somewhat or very likely to switch their vote.
Not only does Abbott appear to be in good shape just over two weeks before the November 8 election, but the poll also shows all other statewide Republican candidates with double-digit leads.
Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Democrat Rochelle Garza by 14 points. Previous polls suggested Paxton was in for a tight race.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads his Democratic opponent, Mike Collier, by 15 percentage points. Comptroller Glenn Hegar is ahead of his Democratic challenger, Janet Dudding, by 12 points.
Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller has a 12-point lead over Democrat Susan Hays, while Republican Dawn Buckingham leads Democrat Jay Kleberg by 11 in the race for land commissioner.
The poll surveyed 1,200 self-declared registered voters using the internet from October 7-17 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.
Early voting for the November 8 election begins on Monday. To check your registration and find your polling place, visit VoteTexas.gov.
Beto is a loser and always will be.
Abbott will win by 13-14% if that poll says 11%.
No legitimate poll should be based upon registered voters instead of likely voters after Labor Day.
Most polls don’t account for the recent years trend of summertime republican response bias (they don’t have time to talk to pollsters) that skewed these polls closer before Labor Day.
There are clues to be found in the undecided data not discussed, like education level, that provide further indication on how big the eventual margin will be.
Polls are a crock. I refuse to take them when they call. Just let people vote. The “polls” showed Hillary winning 90-10% in some places. They use those to try and discourage people from voting. Paying people to annoy people at home needs to stop. The actual vote is the only thing that matters. Provided, of course, there is no cheating.
I agree. Polls are the reason we have election deniers. When people believe the polls and the actual election results are different, it is assumed there must have been cheating are fraud. And with gerrymandering where one party draws the districts in their favor, rather than admit members of their party voted for the other guy, they cry foul. Like changing the rules in a baseball game so that the home team (since it has more fans) gets 5 strikes before they are out, and the visiting team (with less fans) only gets one. Rather than admit they have lousy hitters, or pitchers, they say the visiting team MUST have cheated. Otherwise, how could they have won?