Republicans are aiming to flip a congressional seat in South Texas that a Democratic incumbent has held for nine years. New internal polling indicates that their challenger is currently leading in a district that previously voted for Trump, providing them with optimism about their chances of success.
The National Republican Congressional Committee released internal battleground polling data on Friday in Texas’ 34th District – the first time this cycle the NRCC has publicly disclosed district-level data in a key House race. The early numbers could spell trouble for Rep. Vicente Gonzalez.
According to the survey of likely general election voters, Republican challenger Eric Flores leads Gonzalez 41% to 40% on the named ballot.
Overall, the political environment appears to give Republicans an advantage going into November. Republicans are ahead by 4 points on the generic congressional ballot, and 51% of voters in the district say they prefer Trump’s policy agenda over the Biden-era agenda.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party has a net negative image rating of 17 points among voters surveyed.
Notably, the most damaging for the incumbent: nearly half of voters – 45% – say they don’t know who Vicente Gonzalez is after nearly a decade in Congress.
“Democrats are watching the ground shift beneath their feet in South Texas,” said NRCC Spokesman Christian Martinez. “Voters are looking for new leadership that actually reflects the values and priorities of South Texas, and they’re moving past out-of-touch Vicente Gonzalez.”
Martinez added that Gonzalez “has spent nearly a decade in Washington serving himself while fighting against lower taxes, a strong border, and the economic opportunity South Texas families are demanding.”
TX-34 covers the Rio Grande Valley, an area that has shifted politically in recent elections. Trump made strong gains with Hispanic voters across South Texas in 2020 and 2024, turning several once-safe Democratic districts into competitive races.
As a result, Gonzalez’s district is now a key target for Republicans.
Gonzalez’s office has not responded to The Dallas Express‘ inquiry for comment as of the time of publication.
