Hurricane Isaias has forced producers to shut in roughly 63% of U.S. Gulf offshore oil output, adding a new supply threat for Texas drivers even as the storm heads toward a landfall east of the state.
Operators had halted an estimated 1,282,879 barrels of daily oil production, or 62.89% of Gulf output, and 1,127 million cubic feet of daily natural-gas production, or 57.35%, according to the Marine Minerals Administration’s Thursday report. The figures reflect operator submissions through 11 a.m. CDT Thursday. A day earlier, the shut-in was about 511,619 barrels of oil a day, or 25.08%, and 350.25 million cubic feet of gas, or 16.37%.
Isaias strengthened to 85 mph maximum sustained winds and moved east-northeast at 10 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 10 a.m. CDT Thursday advisory. Forecasters expect additional strengthening before landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
As previously reported by The Dallas Express, Texas motorists faced substantial fuel-price increases earlier this year. Isaias now threatens to disrupt supplies as drivers remain above last month’s price levels.
Platforms evacuate as production stops
Personnel had evacuated 121 production platforms and five drilling rigs by Thursday’s federal reporting cutoff, the Marine Minerals Administration said. Four other drilling rigs moved out of the storm’s path. On Wednesday, the count was eight platforms and two rigs evacuated, with one rig moved.
The Marine Minerals Administration issued the figures on the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement website. The agency says the Interior Department combined that bureau and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management into the new administration in July.
Shell said Wednesday it was evacuating all personnel and shutting in production at Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox. It had already removed nonessential workers from Stones, Reuters reported.
Chevron said it had begun shutdown procedures at four operated Gulf facilities and was bringing additional workers ashore. Its other five Gulf facilities maintained normal production. The report did not identify the four affected sites.
Those announcements concern offshore production and do not confirm a Texas refinery shutdown. Refinery disruptions remain a potential additional source of fuel-market pressure.
Why Texas pump prices remain exposed
An offshore shutdown removes crude oil that refineries turn into gasoline and diesel. Refinery outages can separately reduce finished-fuel supplies and raise petroleum-product prices, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Texas does not need to take a direct hit to face higher fuel costs. Crude prices and regional fuel supplies help determine what distributors and retailers pay. Supply losses elsewhere can therefore affect Texas purchasing costs, an implication of the EIA’s explanation of fuel pricing.
Most gasoline travels from refineries through pipelines to terminals near consuming markets, then reaches stations by tanker truck, the EIA explains. Pump prices also reflect taxes, transportation costs and local competition, so changes need not arrive everywhere at once.
Higher prices predate the storm
Regular gasoline averaged $3.87 statewide Thursday, $3.85 in Dallas and $3.85 in Fort Worth-Arlington, according to AAA. Diesel averaged $5.70 statewide, $5.66 in Dallas and $5.66 in Fort Worth-Arlington.
Despite the storm, statewide regular gasoline fell about 7 cents from a week earlier. Dallas regular fell about 12 cents. Both markets remained higher than a month earlier, by about 20 cents statewide and 24 cents in Dallas.
The EIA’s October 6 outlook attributed September’s national gasoline and diesel increases to higher crude prices and wider spreads between crude and wholesale fuel prices. It also described low fuel inventories, leaving the market vulnerable to additional disruption.
Those pressures preceded Isaias. The available price averages do not establish how many cents, if any, the hurricane has added to Texas pump prices.
What Texans and travelers should know
Texas lies outside the NHC’s hurricane and tropical storm warning areas. The forecast directs the storm toward the northern Gulf Coast east of Texas; coastal residents should still check local weather guidance for surf conditions.
The hurricane warning extends from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Florida’s Bay/Gulf county line. The NHC forecasts peak surge of 5 to 7 feet in Mobile Bay and along portions of that coastline if peak surge coincides with high tide.
Travelers heading toward coastal Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle should check local evacuation instructions and travel updates before departing. The NHC warns of damaging winds, flooding and potentially prolonged power outages in the threatened region.
