A new poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by two percentage points, continuing a concerning trend for the incumbent ahead of the November election.
Emerson College’s May poll showed Trump with 46% support ahead of Biden’s 44%. However, Trump’s lead shrinks to a 50-50 tie when undecided voters were asked to reveal who they lean toward.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted the poll shows Biden needs undecided young voters to shift his way come election day.
“Voters under 30 break for Biden by 15 points, with a quarter undecided,” Kimball said. “When these undecideds are pushed, the group breaks for Biden by 26 points, 63% to 37%, reflective of his margin in 2020 with this group.”
Kimball continued to note Trump’s progress among groups he previously struggled with.
“That said, Biden trails Trump 41% to 45% among voters in their 30s, among whom he led Trump in 2020,” Kimball said. “Trump’s support has grown since 2020 among voters in their 50s according to this poll, leading Biden by 19 points, 57% to 38%.”
Emerson College’s last poll showed Trump leading Biden by three percentage points. Biden last led Trump in Emerson’s June 2023 poll.
The RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling data shows Trump leading Biden by one percentage point.
Biden’s polling struggles are especially notable in the swing states most likely to determine the election. A poll this month from The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer found Trump leads Biden in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, as previously reported by The Dallas Express. Biden led only in Wisconsin. All of the swing states went to Biden in 2020.
Last month, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll revealed similar results in battleground states, as previously reported by The Dallas Express: Trump led in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Biden took Michigan in the poll.
Raghavan Mayur, who oversees the TIPP, one of the most historically accurate polls on U.S. presidential elections, told The Dallas Express last month that Trump is “having a moment.”
“I have a feeling that Trump can lose the popular vote by about five points and still win the election,” he said. “I don’t see Trump as a party guy. He attracts people from all over. I think he will attract blacks, Hispanics, and union voters, but I’m not sure how the abortion issue will play.”
