The small island-nation of Taiwan is keeping a close eye on the war in Ukraine, as it may one day soon find itself in a similar situation. Like Ukraine, Taiwan faces a military foe much larger and stronger than itself.
China has long hungered to take over Taiwan. The desire dates to the end of the communist revolution in 1949 when Chinese nationalist leaders fled to the nearby country. Since then, the Chinese government has viewed Taiwan as a “rebel province” and has sought to reunify the island with mainland China.
China has allegedly pressured international companies to list Taiwan as part of China on their websites and threatened to stop conducting business with them if they do not comply.
Taiwan, however, is determined to keep working toward recognition as an independent democracy. At the moment, its status is somewhat ambiguous, as it is not recognized by the United Nations as a sovereign nation.
However, although its legal status is unclear, Taiwan has all the characteristics of a sovereign state, including a constitution, democratically-elected leaders, and an armed military with about 300,000 troops.
Last year, China displayed acts of aggression toward Taiwan by flying an unprecedented number of warplanes through the country’s air defense zone. The hostile action prompted U.S. Admiral John Aquilino to state that a war between Taiwan and China was closer than we think.
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, said on CNN on Sunday, “We try to see what we can learn from Ukraine in defending ourselves.”
Wu cited two observations that he feels Taiwan would do well to emulate.
“The first is asymmetric capability. Look at the Ukrainians; they use small personal weapons to go against a large enemy,” he said. “In fact, we have been preparing for that, but we need to make more investment in this regard.”
Wu also took note of the civilian participation in Ukraine’s defense effort:
“Look at the Ukrainian people. All of the males are having the determination to defend the country. They want to serve in the military. They want to go to the war zones to fight against Russia. That kind of spirit is enviable for the Taiwanese people.”
Other military strategists have agreed with Wu’s assessments.
Retired U.S. Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense Democracies, told The Epoch Times Taiwan must boost its short-range and medium-range air defense capabilities against cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles.
Taiwan is, in fact, doing this. Last February, the U.S. approved a possible $100 million sale of equipment and services to Taiwan to sustain, maintain and improve its Patriot missile system.
According to Ma Cheng-Kun, a Taiwanese government advisor on China policy, Taiwan has been proactively developing lightweight, shoulder-launched anti-armor weapons designed for close warfare.
Last March, the defense ministry announced that Taiwan would be doubling its yearly missile production, including missiles that can reach further into mainland China.
Additionally, as an island, Taiwan faces an even more significant threat by sea than Ukraine. Montgomery stated that a land-based version of the Harpoon Black II anti-ship missile could inflict a lot of damage to inbound naval ships. Boeing was recently awarded a nearly $500 million contract to supply Taiwan with Harpoon Coastal Defense System equipment.
Montgomery also noted that Taiwan needs to improve its cybersecurity. One official stated that Taiwan government agencies alone are cyberattacked by China about 2.5 million times per day. This is similar to the onslaught of cyberattacks that Russia launched against Ukraine following its invasion of Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine has since become better equipped to fend off such attacks.
“Taiwan can learn from that,” said Montgomery.
Global security expert Benjamin Varlese agreed that utilizing the civilian population to slow down an invasion would be an effective strategy for Taiwan, as it has been for Ukraine.
“Any such delay to an invasion could cause the Chinese regime to take a tactical pause and force them to rethink their strategies, ” he said. “Before things start escalating more dramatically, a civilian population that administers more than first aid is clearly something that should be given serious consideration as a deterrent.”
Taiwan has reportedly been teaching first aid and preparing its citizens to assist the island’s armed forces.
War on the Rocks, a platform for analysis and debate on strategy, defense, and foreign affairs, wrote that a sense of national identity is a powerful motivation to fight. Just as Ukrainians see themselves as different than Russians, a majority of the people of Taiwan see themselves as Taiwanese, distinct from the population of mainland China.
According to the platform, with training, civilians could be transformed into a lethal defense force, setting ambushes, taking out vehicles with anti-tank weapons, and carrying out other forms of asymmetric guerilla warfare.
War on the Rocks also recommended that Taiwan stock up now on humanitarian provisions, as these may be hard to come by if war should break out on the island. Additionally, the platform said authorities should plan ahead for the evacuation of civilian refugees, as there would be no good options to get any of these people off the island during an armed conflict.
Despite the agreement by these and many other experts on how Taiwan can best prepare for a possible invasion, Dr. Zheng Wang, director of the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies and a Seton Hall professor, proposes an altogether different approach.
In an article published in The National Interest, an international relations magazine, Wang stated that it is essential to learn the right lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War and recognize that “there are no winners in war, and no losers in peace.”
“If we begin to prepare for war, we will lose the opportunity to make peace and avoid mutually undesirable violence,” he declared.
Dr. Wang asserted that a war between China and Taiwan would have far worse consequences than seen so far in the Russo-Ukrainian War. It would likely involve intervention by the United States, bringing two nuclear powers into direct confrontation as well as disrupting the two largest economies in the world and, by extension, the entire world economy.
Wang argued that “promoting pathways for peace is the only way that we all can win,” and outlined several concrete measures that the countries could take to facilitate peace instead of war.
The article advised that the ruling parties of China and Taiwan should establish communication channels as soon as possible to reduce the risk of miscommunication and misjudgment. Wang said the two sides should explore the possibility of an interim agreement whereby Taiwan would not seek independence and China would not use force against Taiwan.
Per the article, the United States and China should likewise establish a joint high-level committee to meet regularly regarding Taiwan as a conflict-management measure. The professor also noted any peace-making efforts should address identity-based issues, recognizing each society’s perspective.
Wang said there still remains ample opportunity for peacemaking between the two parties.
