Almost one year into the war in Ukraine, the United Kingdom claims Russia has deployed virtually its entire army.
According to Ukrainian officials, Russia will initiate a major offensive to coincide with the anniversary of the invasion, The Wall Street Journal reported. Their Western counterparts, however, expect Moscow to engage in a more comprehensive, drawn-out escalation rather than a single, extensive campaign.
“We haven’t actually seen this massing of a single force to punch through in a big offensive. We’ve just seen an effort to advance, and that has come at a huge cost to the Russian army,” UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC’s Today show on February 15, per the WSJ.
Ukrainian concerns follow Russia’s recent success on the battlefield. Expanded frontline attacks have netted Moscow captured territory in recent weeks following numerous setbacks last year.
According to Wallace, “97% of the whole Russian army is in Ukraine,” per the WSJ.
For its part, Ukraine is attempting to hold Russian forces back in preparation for an eventual counteroffensive. Western officials predict Kyiv will try to regain lost territory this spring.
“The Russians understand that the continuation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and operations to liberate our territories are inevitable,” said a spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence, Andriy Yusov, per the WSJ.
“That’s why the enemy is in a hurry,” he claimed.
Despite financial and military support from numerous Western powers, the fighting has taken an enormous toll on Ukraine. According to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, between February 24, 2022, and January 2, 2023, roughly 18,000 civilians have been injured or killed, including nearly 7,000 deaths.
While Ukrainian forces have suppressed Russia’s ambitions for a broader offensive, the fighting has been challenging, says President Zelenskyy.
Referring to the fierce fighting in the eastern section of the country, Zelenskyy insisted it is critical to “understand the significance of these battles.” According to the Ukrainian president, the east is “where the unprecedented destruction of Russian potential is taking place now,” per the WSJ.
A year into the conflict, resupplying depleted munitions remains a pressing issue for both sides. The volume of rounds fired by Ukrainian forces is so high that allies have struggled to keep pace with rearmament.
Russia’s position is potentially similar. Western officials believe Moscow, too, is contending with limited ammunition.
“Production is almost certainly falling short of the Russian demands to resource the Ukraine campaign and restore its longer-term defense requirements,” said the UK Defense Ministry, per the WSJ.
Wallace believes Moscow is getting desperate, pointing to the 97% deployment, high attrition rates, and estimates of nearly two-thirds of their tanks destroyed or inoperable.
“I think what Russia is doing in trying to advance, it’s doing in a sort of human way, almost First World War levels of attrition and with success rates of a matter of metres rather than kilometres,” Wallace said, per Yahoo News.
At this point, the “biggest unknown,” says Wallace, comes from leaders in Moscow who either possess a “gap in reality” or have “no regard for human life,” per Yahoo News.
