Kalshi and Polymarket are putting real-time market odds in direct comparison with traditional polling as Texas Republicans head into Tuesday’s runoff elections.
The platforms give political observers a live look at what traders expect to happen in major races. Traditional polls ask selected voters whom they support at a fixed point in time. Prediction markets show prices that move as traders respond to polling, endorsements, turnout expectations, campaign news, and late momentum.
Kalshi describes prediction markets as a “real-time alternative” to traditional polls, arguing that markets show what people are willing to risk money on rather than what voters tell pollsters in a survey. Polymarket says its election markets show real-time odds backed by crowd-sourced probabilities and financial conviction.
The platforms gained broader attention after the 2024 presidential election. Polymarket’s resolved presidential election market listed President Donald Trump as the winner and reported $3.7 billion in trading volume. Trump defeated Kamala Harris 312-226 in the Electoral College, according to the National Archives.
That result helped fuel a broader debate over whether prediction markets can offer a faster read on elections than legacy polling, especially late in a race.
Texas Runoffs Offer A New Test
Texas’ Republican runoff elections now give Kalshi and Polymarket another high-profile test.
The latest public polling in the Republican runoff for U.S. Senate shows movement toward Paxton, though not as decisively as the prediction markets. The New York Times’ polling tracker, updated May 24, listed recent Republican runoff surveys ranging from a 1-point Cornyn lead to a 21-point Paxton lead. The latest listed poll, from SoCal Strategies, found Paxton leading Cornyn 57% to 35%.
The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll, conducted April 28 through May 1, found Paxton leading Cornyn by a narrower 3-point margin, 48% to 45%, with 7% unsure. The survey included 1,200 likely May 2026 Texas Republican primary runoff voters and had a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.
The race also shifted in the final week after President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19, as previously reported by The Dallas Express. Trump wrote that Paxton had his “Complete and Total Endorsement” and said, “KEN PAXTON WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” The endorsement came after Trump touted a 37-0 record for candidates he backed in Republican primaries across six states, reinforcing why markets may move quickly after Trump weighs in.
By Sunday night, the markets showed a much sharper signal. Kalshi listed Paxton at 95.9% and Cornyn at 4.3% in its Texas Republican Senate nominee market, which had drawn more than $15.8 million in volume.
Polymarket showed a similar split in its Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner market, listing Paxton at 96.3% and Cornyn at 3.5%. The market had drawn more than $17 million in volume.
Paxton and Cornyn are competing in Tuesday’s Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate.
Attorney General Race Shows Similar Split
Kalshi and Polymarket also show a wider gap than the public polling in the Republican runoff for Texas attorney general.
The University of Houston poll found state Sen. Mayes Middleton leading U.S. Rep. Chip Roy by 9 points, 48% to 39%, with 13% unsure.
Polymarket listed Middleton at 85% in its Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner market, with Roy at 8%, according to the platform.
Kalshi also showed Middleton ahead in its Texas Republican Attorney General nominee market, listing him at 78% and Roy at 23%.
Middleton and Roy advanced to the runoff after no candidate received more than 50% in the March 3 Republican primary. Middleton received 39.1%, followed by Roy at 31.6%, state Sen. Joan Huffman at 15.1%, and former U.S. Assistant Attorney General Aaron Reitz at 14.2%, according to the University of Houston poll summary.
Markets Are Not Polls
Prediction markets do not measure voter opinion directly. They measure market expectations.
That distinction matters. A poll can show what likely voters told a pollster during a specific survey window. A prediction market can absorb that poll, react to later news, and move within minutes as traders buy and sell contracts.
That speed gives Kalshi and Polymarket a different role in election coverage. They do not replace polling, but they add another live signal that campaigns, media outlets, investors, and political watchers can track before ballots are counted.
In Texas, that signal is clear heading into runoff day: recent polls show Paxton and Middleton ahead, while Kalshi and Polymarket show traders pricing both races as far more decisive.
