Midterm election day in Texas is today, and there will be several things to watch. Turnout will be lower than in 2018, but how much lower it is may go a long way to determining the results of some races.
Turnout in Texas was 53% in 2018, but this year, it’s expected to be closer to 35%. Throughout the entire two weeks of early voting, voters cast 534,000 fewer ballots than early voting four years ago.
Dallas County’s early voting turnout was 23% lower than in 2018, the most considerable decrease among North Texas counties.
The race that has generated the most headlines is Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, seeking a third term as governor against Democrat challenger Beto O’Rourke.
The low turnout in Dallas County is not a good sign for O’Rourke, whose strong performance in the four major counties in Texas during his 2018 run for the U.S. Senate against Ted Cruz was a significant reason turnout eclipsed 53% that year.
Unlike in 2018, O’Rourke may be hurt by an unpopular Democrat president in the White House. O’Rourke has narrowly outraised Abbott since February 20, but polls have consistently shown the incumbent ahead by more than 5 points.
Increasing the turnout is crucial not only for O’Rourke’s chances but also for the chances of other Democrats down-ballot. That is not lost on national politicians, as they have recently visited Texas to encourage voters.
An automated phone call recorded by former President Barack Obama has also been circulating to Texas voters, encouraging them to vote for O’Rourke.
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump also rallied in South Texas to rally Republican voters days before early voting began.
The results out of Harris County will be worth keeping an eye on. Republicans regularly competed in Harris County until after 2018, when Democrats took control of the county judge position and the court system.
That same county judge seat is the subject of national attention this cycle as well-known Democrat Lina Hidalgo tries to hold off well-funded Republican challenger Alex del Moral Mealer.
Spiking crime and controversial bail policies in Harris County have reignited Republicans’ belief in taking back the county government, and they have been pouring resources into the county.
A recent poll in Harris County showed O’Rourke only up 2% on Abbott, compared to O’Rourke’s 16-point margin over Cruz in 2018.
If the race in Harris County is significantly closer than four years ago, as polls suggest, it will wipe out any gains O’Rourke might make elsewhere.
In other statewide races, Republican incumbent Dan Patrick and Democrat Mike Collier are competing for Texas lieutenant governor, a rematch from when the two also went against each other in 2018.
The race for Texas attorney general pits Republican Ken Paxton, who has long held the position, against Democratic challenger Rochelle Mercedes Garza.
Texans will also pick who they want to serve as railroad commissioner between Republican incumbent Wayne Christian and Democrat Luke Warford.
There will be a new land commissioner after George P. Bush left the post to run for governor. Republican Dawn Buckingham is facing off against Democrat Jay Kleberg for the position.
Agriculture commissioner will also be on the ballot, with incumbent Republican Sid Miller facing Democrat Susan Hays.
As far as U.S. House races, the ones expected to be the most competitive are taking place in South Texas.
In the redrawn 15th District, Republican Monica De La Cruz is against Democrat Michelle Vallejo. In the 28th District, Republican Cassy Garcia is challenging incumbent Democrat Rep. Henry Cuellar, who has occupied the seat since 2005.
Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez chose to run in the 34th District rather than his current 15th District and will face Republican Rep. Mayra Flores, who won the special election for the seat in June.
Republicans have targeted these seats with significant resources, and if they prevail, it would significantly impact not just state politics but also the makeup of the national Congress.
A couple of races in the DFW area are expected to be close. The first, in Collin County, pits Republican Jamee Jolly against Democrat Mihaela Plesa for state House District 70.
In Tarrant County, longtime County Judge Glen Whitley is not running again, opening the door for either Republican Tim O’Hare or Democrat Deborah Peoples to replace him.
Polls are open on Election Day, November 8, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. You will be allowed to vote if you are in line before 7 p.m.
Voters can find their polling place and confirm their registration at VoteTexas.gov.
A photo ID is required to vote, but voters who do not have one can cast a provisional ballot. They must later provide a valid ID to their voter registrar’s office for their vote to be counted.
The accepted forms of ID are listed here.