Volatility tied to Iran has rattled markets, but Rigney Financial Services says investors should focus on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term geopolitical swings.
In a recent investor outlook, Thomas Wayne Rigney pointed to past conflicts as a reminder that markets often recover before wars or military operations formally end.
The outlook compares the current environment to the start of the first Gulf War in 1990 and the Iraq War in 2003.
In 1990, stocks faced a weakening economy, elevated inflation, and fragile confidence. Even so, equities began recovering before the conflict ended.
In 2003, the backdrop looked stronger. The economy had recovered from the dot-com bust, corporate earnings were improving, and monetary policy supported growth — conditions that helped fuel a multi-year bull market.
“With stronger fundamentals in place, markets responded positively after hostilities started and began a five-year bull market that didn’t peak until October 2007,” Rigney wrote.
He says today’s market reflects elements of both periods but does not show signs that the long-term outlook has been meaningfully damaged.
“From a market perspective, nothing about the current conflict undermines our confidence in the long-term attractiveness of equities,” Rigney wrote. “For stocks, the more positive 2003 path seems more likely than 1990.”
The outlook acknowledges the current environment remains unsettled, citing damage to energy infrastructure in the region and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“There is no easy off ramp,” Rigney wrote.
Even so, he argues that markets historically rebound before geopolitical tensions fully resolve and can move sharply once clarity emerges.
He pointed to strong gains at the end of March as a possible sign that investors may already be looking beyond near-term uncertainty.
“Attractive opportunities are likely to emerge from this downdraft once U.S. military objectives are achieved and tankers can move freely through the strait,” he wrote.
Rigney advises investors to keep portfolio risk aligned with long-term targets, stay diversified, and look for opportunities during periods of market weakness.
