Polymarket traders favored a Texas defeat for Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) before polls closed Tuesday, correctly anticipating his U.S. Senate loss after backing his Republican runoff victory earlier this year.
An Election Day snapshot put state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) at 74% on Polymarket, roughly a three-in-four chance of winning, according to Action Network’s 9:02 a.m. Central update. A poll released November 1 by The New York Times and Siena Research Institute also found Talarico leading, 50% to 43%.
Wednesday morning’s unofficial state returns showed Talarico with 5,410,057 votes (55.0%) to Paxton’s 4,228,924 (43.0%). The count gave the Democrat a lead of more than 1.18 million votes.
More Texas races lined up
Polymarket also favored Democratic victories in several closely watched congressional contests. Bobby Pulido defeated U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) in District 15, while Johnny Garcia defeated Republican Carlos De La Cruz in District 35. U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) defeated Republican Eric Flores in District 34, according to unofficial state returns.
The table compares dated market odds with unofficial vote shares.
|
Race |
Preelection Polymarket favorite | Actual vote percentages |
| U.S. Senate | James Talarico, 74% November 3 |
Talarico 55.0%; Paxton 43.0% |
| U.S. House District 15 | Bobby Pulido, 87% October 30 |
Pulido 62.3%; Monica De La Cruz 37.7% |
| U.S. House District 34 | Vicente Gonzalez, 90% November 2 |
Gonzalez 55.7%; Flores 39.7% |
| U.S. House District 35 | Johnny Garcia, 72% November 3 |
Garcia 55.4%; Carlos De La Cruz 44.6% |
| Governor | Greg Abbott, 62.9% November 3 |
Hinojosa 52.8%; Abbott 45.7% |
| Lieutenant governor | Dan Patrick, 77% November 2 |
Goodwin 51.7%; Patrick 45.7% |
|
Attorney general |
Mayes Middleton, 74.5% October 24 |
Johnson 52.3%; Middleton 46.0% |
Vote shares include all reported candidates and write-ins, rounded to one decimal. State returns: November 4, 11:55 a.m.; unofficial. Odds retain their original snapshot dates.
Where statewide favorites fell short
The Senate success did not extend across the statewide ballot. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) remained the favorite in an Election Day reading, but state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) defeated him.
A November 2 reading also favored Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), who lost to state Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin). An earlier, October 24 checkpoint favored state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston); Wednesday’s count instead showed state Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) ahead.
The earlier DX comparison explained that polls measure voter support during a survey period, while traders price the chance of victory and can react to later news. These snapshots do not establish a statewide accuracy rate.
Right on Paxton in May and November
A University of Houston survey conducted April 28 through May 1 put Paxton ahead of U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), 48% to 45%. Later polls also showed wider Paxton leads. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton May 19. Polymarket put Paxton at 96.3% May 24, as The Dallas Express reported. Paxton won the runoff May 26.
