A new poll indicates there could be an upset in a crucial swing state senate race.
A poll from Data Orbital shows Republican Kari Lake at 45.2% to Democrat Congressman Ruben Gallego’s 44.5%, while a Green Party candidate trails at 1.6%, and 5.8% remain undecided.
Lake posted the poll to her millions of followers shortly after its publication.
The poll also showed good tidings for former President Donald Trump’s third presidential bid, although the former news anchor did not include this information in her post on X. The poll showed Trump at 49.7% and Harris at 41.9% with about 2% going to third-party candidates and 3.7% undecided.
This data comes from early voting, already underway in the Copper State.
The poll had a sample size of 550 respondents, slightly below the standard of 600 that most pollsters prefer. However, it is not the only poll that has found that the results have tightened recently. A recent AtlasIntel poll showed Lake and Gallego tied at 48%.
These polls seem to show a shift among voters starting around October 26 and continuing until the present date.
Before October 26, the polls had been stagnant for months.
Most polls on FiveThirtyEight, a website that catalogs the results of nearly every poll in major races across the country, found that Lake lagged between 4 and 10 points.
So apparently Kari Lake's lock screen is a picture of her and Trump. pic.twitter.com/r6MXyNTCGN
— Jerod MacDonald-Evoy (@JerodMacEvoy) October 25, 2024
https://x.com/JerodMacEvoy/status/1849613550588293
Lake is a figure who has closely tied herself to Trump.
The screensaver on her phone is reportedly a picture of her and the former president. Lake has appeared with the former president at numerous events, and he was quick to endorse her when she announced her senate run.
Given the close relationship between the figures, it was not always clear why Trump has led his challenger in the overwhelming majority of polls in Arizona and Lake has trailed.
Lake unsuccessfully ran for governor of Arizona in 2022. The election was shrouded in mystery and lawsuits after numerous voting centers experienced a ballot printing issue on Election Day.
Lake told an interviewer at the time, “It was 60% of the voting centers on Election Day and it was almost all Republican areas. The machines didn’t work! They printed the wrong image on the ballot intentionally on Election Day only! Knowing that 75% of the people showing up were Republicans.”
A 2023 investigation by former Arizona Supreme Court Chief Justice Ruth McGregor reportedly found that older printing hardware and longer ballots printed on heavier paper caused the issue in Maricopa County precincts.
At the same time, election officials in Cochise County refused to certify the election results, and another legal battle ensued.
The votes were counted for several days until Democrat Secretary of State Katie Hobbs was announced as the victor.