(Texas Scorecard) – With eyes focused on the national election in November, there’s another race quietly unfolding in the background: the race to lead the Texas House in the next legislative session.
Currently, that seat is held by Dade Phelan, but sources indicate his tenure may be coming to an end.
Phelan was forced into a runoff election earlier this year, while many of his supporters were ousted in a wave of conservative victories in the primary election. Phelan narrowly escaped defeat, with the help of Democrat crossover voters, but others weren’t so lucky. Fifteen incumbent Republicans lost their elections, while others retired to avoid almost certain defeat.
For the returning Republican members, there is a common refrain: they don’t want to go through this again. Among other things, they don’t want to be forced to defend placing Democrats in leadership positions.
That’s why 46 returning and incoming members have pledged to support a speaker candidate in the Republican caucus who will appoint only Republicans to lead committees. This represents a majority of the caucus and surpasses the threshold needed to block Phelan from securing the supermajority of votes required for the caucus nomination. Others, like State Rep. David Spiller, say they will support the caucus’ pick for speaker.
Phelan, however, has defended the practice and stated he will “not waver” from appointing Democrats to leadership positions if re-elected as speaker.
Moreover, the members don’t want to be in perpetual conflict with the Senate. While some competition between the two chambers is natural, the House has been at all-out war with the Senate in recent sessions. Conservative priorities often face this fate: passed in the Senate, killed in the House. Issues like school choice and protecting Texas land from Chinese Communist ownership have suffered this pattern.
With Phelan leading these disputes, members have grown frustrated, as they have to defend the House’s failures during their re-election campaigns. Phelan’s antagonistic stance toward Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick hasn’t helped matters either.
These factors, among others, have led to a clear sentiment: they don’t want Dade Phelan as Speaker.
While Phelan has publicly announced his intention to run for speaker next session, his campaign has been lackluster. Challengers like State Reps. Tom Oliverson and Shelby Slawson have made their intentions known, and others are considering potential runs in the weeks ahead.
In conversations with multiple Austin sources, we estimate around 20 members continue to tell their colleagues that they support Dade Phelan. It is unclear how many of these members are willing to defy the GOP caucus and cut a deal with the Democrats on the floor of the Texas House. With most of Phelan’s supporters informing their colleagues that they won’t go to the floor with him, insiders put that number closer to seven.
Some of Phelan’s own chairmen have publicly come out against him, including Oliverson, Briscoe Cain, and J.M. Lozano.
Other chairmen quietly say they don’t see a path for him and that there will likely be a change. The chairmen who insiders feel are still staunchly in Dade’s camp are:
Many members believe that Burrows and Bonnen are trying to find a candidate to replace Phelan while maintaining their power. Burrows chairs the powerful Calendars Committee, and Bonnen chairs the budget-writing Appropriations Committee. Right now, they seem to be leaning toward supporting Buckley for a potential candidacy while also considering James Frank, a long-rumored potential speaker, may be willing to keep them in top-tier positions if given the gavel.
The Republican caucus vote will take place during their meeting in December. The official vote for Speaker will occur on the first day of the new legislative session, January 14, 2025
