A new study projects Texas will have nearly 100 million people living in the state by 2100, pushing it ahead of all other U.S. states.
The analysis from moveBuddha predicts Texas will reach a total population of 95,699,438 people by 2100, which would be a 213.8% increase from 2023. Such growth would make the Lone Star State the most populous in the country.
Coming in at a distant second in moveBuddha’s projected ranking was Florida, with an estimated population of 68,495,750. California — currently the nation’s most populous state — followed in third place with a projected 50,394,266 residents.
The fourth-highest projection belonged to Georgia, with 23,904,874 people, and North Carolina was a close fifth with a projected population of 23,049,547 residents in 2100.
Overall, the study anticipated that the largest population growth over the next 77 years would be concentrated in the southern states.
“The South is adding residents for various reasons, but climate could be a driving factor. Many Americans are leaving large cities and cold-weather states for less congested places and warmer climates, especially for the winter months. Other factors are housing affordability, lower taxes, and the Baby Boomer generation’s retirement,” explained moveBuddha.
The projections were determined using each state’s annual compound growth rates between 1910 and 2023 and then expanding those numbers for the next 77 years to reach 2100.
However, the study prefaces the findings by stating that various outside factors could impact the movement of people across the United States.
“We don’t know how climate change will affect migration patterns, and we don’t know the effects of new technologies. Migration patterns are hard to predict; they change quickly. Just look at the impact of the pandemic and remote work,” said moveBuddha.
The future growth of Texas was captured in another study by moveBuddha that investigated what U.S. cities might be the most populous by 2100. The top three most populated cities are projected to be in the Lone Star State.
Dallas-Fort Worth is anticipated to be the largest metro area in the country by 2100, with a projected population of 33,907,275 people, according to moveBuddha.
Coming in second was Houston, with a projection of 31,384,122 residents.
Third place belonged to Austin, which was projected to have 22,293,980 people living in the city by 2100.
Currently, New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago are the top three most populated cities in the nation.
Similarly to the state projections, moveBuddha noted that the study “was an inexact science, and growth rates are bound to change.”
“Climate change effects, migration patterns from climate change, and other unforeseen events could change things,” added the company.