As Texas navigates the constantly evolving hemp industry, experts are expressing concerns about uncertainty and potential changes as we approach 2026.
With federal debates over the definition of hemp, and state-level expansions in medical marijuana programs, the Lone Star State’s approach to marijuana could change dramatically, influencing not only consumers but also some of the nation’s biggest cannabis corporations.
Jim Higdon, chief compliance officer and co-founder of Cornbread Hemp, spoke to DX about two starkly contrasting scenarios for the Texas cannabis industry next year. In an optimistic outlook, he envisions an expanded Texas Compassionate Use Program (T-CUP) stepping in to meet demand after the potential removal of THCA hemp flower from the market.
“The optimistic view is that in 2026, the expanded T-CUP program fills the demand caused by the removal of THCA hemp flower from the marketplace while hemp oils, gummies, lotions, and beverages are sold legally to Texan adults in age-gated retail and direct-to-consumer sales for adult Texans who prefer to shop online,” Higdon said.
However, he warned of a darker alternative, likening it to the gritty world of “No Country for Old Men,” where consumers turn to black markets dominated by cartels, potentially fostering more violence and corruption connected to cannabis.
“To prevent that worst-case scenario, Texans should call their member of Congress and ask them if they support Ted Cruz and Rand Paul’s efforts to save hemp in America,” Higdon added.
The federal government’s role looms large in these predictions about what the marijuana market will look like next year.
Toby Streett, founder of Cbdeeme.com, believes 2026 could be a turning point driven by more straightforward guidelines.
“I’ve been following Texas’s slow but deliberate crawl toward broader hemp normalization, and I think 2026 could be the year when federal clarity finally forces Texas’ hand. The state operates in a gray zone — allowing some hemp-derived products while aggressively restricting others. Once D.C. issues clearer definitions (like what counts as “synthetic THC” or what’s allowed under 0.3% limits), Texas won’t be able to stay half-in and half-out anymore,” Streett told DX.
Streett did highlight Gov. Greg Abbott’s recent veto as a sign of progress for the hemp industry. He also praised Sen. Paul’s proposed language to clarify ambiguities in recent legislation, which could educate consumers and stabilize the market.
“Abbott showed some real courage (IMHO) when he did the veto. If Congress moves ahead with even a partial Farm Bill update in 2025 — clarifying hemp-derived THC limits or redefining ‘synthetic’ cannabinoids — it’s going to ripple straight through Texas’s retail shelves and small-business ecosystem. Texas regulators have taken a ‘wait and litigate’ approach, but once federal definitions tighten, that fence-sitting will become unsustainable,” Streett said.
Meanwhile, Stephanie Hastings, a marketing executive with long-standing experience in the cannabis industry, spoke on the ongoing “flux” in Texas and its marijuana laws. She also describes how, although the medical marijuana program looks to be expanding, many Texans do not meet the requirements to be eligible “patients” in those programs.
“Looking ahead to 2026, the Texas cannabis landscape remains very much in flux,” Hastings said. “The state has recently announced additional licensees as part of its medical cannabis program expansion. While this may benefit some people, many Texans still do not qualify under the current medical guidelines. For those individuals (particularly adults seeking alternatives that align with their lifestyle and wellness goals) federally legal, compliant, hemp-derived products continue to play an important and necessary role. Removing access to these options would take something away from consumers who are using these products responsibly and enjoying a higher quality of life as a result.”
Experts in the marijuana industry also seem to agree that consumer trends are moving toward more legitimate and trusted hemp products, rather than cloud unregulated stuff often seen at gas stations or smoke shops; almost what could be considered a “maturation” from marijuana consumers, where Texans prioritize transparency and benefits like sleep or focus over high-potency items to get “high.” This shift could even favor established brands if regulations tighten, separating compliant hemp producers from much less-regulated sellers.
As 2026 approaches, the impact of federal changes on Texas’ cautious strategy will determine whether the state increases market accessibility or enforces stricter regulations.