Weather officials are predicting a spike in hurricane activity this season, and some believe the storms could impact Texas.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced in a press release on Thursday that forecasters expect seasonal activity in the Atlantic Ocean this season to be “above-normal.” The likelihood of an above-normal season has now doubled from an initial prediction of 30% to 60%. The probability of near-normal activity decreased from 40% to 25%, and the chances of a below-normal season are now at 15%.
In accordance with the new predictions, NOAA now expects 14-21 named storms, including six to 11 full-fledged hurricanes.
Weather officials claimed the change in prediction was due to the record temperatures the planet has been experiencing.
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, per the press release. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”
Currently, there are no cyclones or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. However, the National Hurricane Center is already monitoring one storm, Hurricane Dora, in the northern Pacific near Hawaii.
Some weather officials are concerned that the increased likelihood of storms could impact the Lone Star State.
Jeff Lutz, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Corpus Christi, told The Texas Tribune that such storms could significantly impact southeast Texas in particular.
“There’s certainly enough fuel, the fuel being the very warm sea surface temperatures and we’re getting towards the climatological peak in the beginning of September, when most hurricanes form, ” said Lutz. “The big question mark is whether or not we’ll get the upper air pattern to allow the storms to get this far into the Gulf of Mexico.”
According to NWS, Hurricane Nicholas was the last hurricane to affect Texas in 2021. The storm brought gusty winds into southeast Texas, causing multiple power outages and flash flooding.