The speaker of the Texas House is in danger of losing his re-election bid — something that has happened only once before — to an upstart challenger in his own party as their race heads to a runoff.

Dade Phelan, the scion of an established and wealthy Beaumont family who has led the House since 2021, trailed his primary opponent, local community organizer David Covey, about 46% to 43% late Tuesday night. Neither candidate achieved more than 50% of the vote, as a third candidate, Alicia Davis, garnered about 10%, sending Phelan and Covey to a runoff set to take place on May 28.

Phelan’s leadership tenure has been an embattled one, but the heat really turned up over the past year when the speaker led a breakaway minority of Republican representatives to join practically all the Democrat members in impeaching the state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Phelan did not end the last legislative session on friendly terms with Lt. Governor Dan Patrick either, as the two fought over how to implement property tax reform. Phelan’s stance earned him censure by his own party at the state level and even by a local county GOP in his own district.

After Paxton fought off the impeachment, he returned fire by endorsing Covey. President Donald Trump did the same, as The Dallas Express previously reported.

Perhaps sensing that Phelan was in trouble, establishment Republicans turned out to support and fund Phelan’s campaign over the last couple of months, as detailed by The Texan. Yet not even the intercession of GOP kingmaker Karl Rove, former Speaker Joe Straus, and former three-term governor Rick Perry could propel Phelan to victory rather than a runoff.

In an email statement released by his campaign, Covey alluded to the fact that many see his race against Phelan as representative of the bigger battle for the heart of the GOP between the old-guard corporate-backed GOP and the recently ascendant populist wing.

“The people of House District 21 have put every politician in Texas, and the nation, on notice,” declared Covey via the statement. “Our elected officials are elected by the people and work for the people, and when they don’t, there will be consequences.”

Covey noted that he would continue to campaign in order to achieve an improbable victory.

“I am eager to continue connecting with voters for the next 84 days,” continued Covey. “Since 1836, Texans have answered the call to defend liberty and fight for our freedoms. I have every intention of continuing that tradition.”

Phelan also acknowledged the deeper ideological implications of the contest:

“This runoff is not just another race, it’s the frontline of the battle for the soul of our district,” he said in a statement on Tuesday, as reported by the Beaumont Enterprise. “While my opponent hides behind empty rhetoric, dishonest advertising and surrogate voices, I stand before voters with a clear record of service and conservative success for Southeast Texas.”