ERCOT Releases Report on December Outlook

Sun setting behind electricity pylons | Image by evening_tao/Freepik

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas recently released its Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy report for the month of December.

The report details the most likely times when a power shortage may occur, referencing Winter Storm Elliot from last December.

“Reserve shortage risks are the highest during the morning hours when daily loads are typically at their highest (Hour Ending 8 a.m.) and just before and during the solar production ramp-up. There is also some elevated risk in the evening hours due to increasing loads with a secondary peak occurring around Hour Ending 9 p.m.,” reads the report.

“Probabilistic modeling results indicate a low risk of ERCOT [the Electric Reliability Council of Texas] having to declare an [Energy Emergency Alert] during the 8 a.m. peak load hour (5.4%); the risk increases to 18% if similar weather conditions to Winter Storm Elliott occur.”

The report notes that a gas-steam unit (568 MW) will also be available this winter. This unit was previously only intended to be used during the summer months.

The organization announced earlier this fall that the Texas power grid was ready to meet demands this winter with some new programs and protocols in place designed to prevent surprise power outages, as previously reported by The Dallas Express.

“Based on expected weather conditions, ERCOT anticipates there will be sufficient generation to meet customer demand this winter,” said ERCOT on its website at the time. “ERCOT will continue to deploy all available tools to manage the grid reliably and coordinate closely with the Public Utility Commission, generation resource owners, and transmission utilities to ensure they are also prepared.”

Measures to increase the stability of the grid and improve its reliability have been underway since the historic failure of the grid in 2021 with the arrival of Winter Storm Uri.

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