Texas Christian University is playing football at an elite level this season under new head coach Sonny Dykes and has advanced to the no. 13 rank in the weekly Associated Press NCAAF Top 25 poll. On October 15, the Horned Frogs will host no. 8 Oklahoma State University in Fort Worth for a game that promises to be one of the more intriguing match-ups in college football this weekend. This is the second consecutive week that the Horned Frogs face an undefeated opponent in the Big 12 schedule.
Dykes has brought his personal version of the “air raid” offense to TCU, and quarterback Max Duggan is thriving in the scheme. Duggan is currently the second-ranked quarterback in NCAA football, according to ESPN, with a raw QB rating of 94.1. NCAA places TCU’s offense at third overall with an average of 530 yards per game.
Receivers Quentin Johnston and Taye Barber have been the biggest recipients of Duggan’s performance, attaining 320 and 233 yards receiving, respectively, and catching a combined three of the QB’s 14 touchdown passes this season. Duggan is already only two touchdowns shy of his career-best performance from last year.
TCU has also been getting it done on the ground, piling up 1,151 yards led by Kendre Miller, who already has 474 yards and six rushing touchdowns. Duggan is the team’s second-leading runner with 204 yards.
Most important for the Horned Frogs is the low turnover percentage. Duggan has thrown only one interception out of 127 passing attempts. Only three teams have fewer interceptions, including no. 1-ranked San Jose State and no. 4 Georgia, which also has just one interception this season.
The challenge for TCU this week will be stopping the dynamic edge-rushing efforts that have resulted in 16 overall sacks by OSU. Oklahoma State brings pressure from their front four, led by defensive ends Brock Martin (4), Ben Kopenski (3), Collin Oliver (3), and Tyler Lacy (2).
The Horned Frogs bring plenty of pressure of their own, with linebacker Dee Winters currently at 3.5 sacks. Winters is tied for third-highest tackles at 22, while safety Mark Perry tops the TCU defense with 28.
Both teams’ defenses will be looking to force the opponent into third-and-long situations where both teams have struggled. TCU converts third downs at a rate just south of 50% (29-59), while the OSU Cowboys struggle to convert, picking up only 40.85% of tries (29-71).
One of the many interesting storylines heading into this game will be which defense is able to stop the homerun plays. Both offenses thrive on downfield throws, and chunk yardage plays that set up scoring opportunities. Oklahoma State will be testing Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, who came into the season with high expectations but has drawn several pass interference penalties at critical moments in the last several weeks without an interception.
A similar situation will face the Horned Frogs’ offense as they look to exploit a secondary that has given up its fair share of chunk yardage through the air. The Cowboys are ranked 130 of 131 in passing yards surrendered, giving up an average of 342.8 yards per game. TCU gives up only 238.5 per game, ranking at 111 by teamrankings.com.
The current betting line gives Oklahoma State a slight advantage to win in this match-up. Fans can anticipate a game that will feature plenty of big-play opportunities that is likely to come down to which team scores last.
Kickoff is set for 12:30 PM Central time from Fort Worth.
