SMU vs Memphis Preview Week 12

Southern Methodist University will welcome Memphis to Dallas on November 26 for the final regular season matchup of 2022. SMU and Memphis are both bowl-eligible and will look to close out their respective seasons on high notes. SMU holds a 6-5 record overall and is fifth in the American Athletic Conference, while Memphis has a matching 6-5 record overall but is 3-4 in AAC games and currently sits at seventh.

There is no doubt about the brilliance of SMU’s offense under first-year head coach Rhett Lashlee who took over the program after Sonny Dykes departed for Fort Worth to take over the TCU football program. SMU’s Rashee Rice leads the nation in receiving yards with 1,208 this season. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai is eighth in the nation in touchdown passes with 29 and eclipsed 3,000 yards passing for the second consecutive year in a brutal 59-24 loss to Tulane last week. 

The Mustangs’ rushing attack is likely less productive than usual with the news that team leader Tyler Lavine will not suit up this week after sustaining an injury in last week’s loss. Primary duties will fall to Velton Gardner, while Camar Wheaton will also get a larger share of carries. SMU may also rely on Mordecai to use his legs, something he has done 50 times this season, including a 60-yard rushing score; the longest for any SMU runner this season in a win over Navy. 

As brilliant as the offensive firepower has been, the Mustangs have struggled mightily on defense in the last several weeks. In addition to spotting 59 points to Tulane, SMU also surrendered 63 points to Houston in an epic victory in Week 9. The defense struggles particularly against the run in which they are ranked 122 of 131 teams nationally. 

Memphis became bowl-eligible last week with a 59-0 clobbering of North Alabama and earned their second consecutive win for the first time since a four-game win streak ended back in Week 6. Memphis QB Seth Henigan sits at 3,000 yards even heading into the final game but has thrown just 18 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Henigan leads the team in rushing attempts with 126 but has garnered only 296 yards.

Henigan has taken 28 sacks this season, the 19th most of any quarterback in the nation. Protecting Henigan will be vital to any chance of success for Memphis against a ferocious SMU line that has 25 sacks on the year. Led by defensive end Nelson Paul with five QB takedowns, the SMU pass defense has also recorded eight interceptions.

Things could also get dicey for Mordecai and the SMU offense as they look to feed Rice on Senior Day. Mordecai has thrown nine interceptions on the year and will face a secondary with 13 takeaways and three defensive touchdown results. 

SMU and Memphis kick off the regular season finale from Dallas at 2:30 pm CT. SMU has a slim 55.4 percent chance at victory over Memphis, according to ESPN analytics.