Mortgage rates ticked upward for the third straight week, even though the Federal Bank lowered the federal funds rate by a half-point last month.
Three weeks ago, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage sat at 6.08%, the lowest it had been in two years. The average rate then crept up to 6.12% the following week, and 6.32% the week after that. As of October 17, the average rate is 6.44%, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
Rates on 15-year fixed mortgages also rose, from 5.41% last week to 5.63% this week, but still well under the average rate of 6.92 one year ago.
The increase in mortgage rates is no doubt a disturbing scenario for would-be homeowners who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for interest rates to drop. However, the good news is that rates are still below the high of 7.63% a year ago.
The uptick in mortgage rates appears to have discouraged some home buyers, as mortgage applications fell 17% last week compared to the previous week.
Mortgage rates are affected by a lot of various factors, not just the federal funds rate, though that can affect the bond market and move the needle on the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use to guide the pricing of home loans. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is currently 4.09%, up from 3.62% about a month ago.
The current job market report and consumer price index are other economic indicators that help lenders determine mortgage rates.
“While we expect the long-run trend in mortgage rates to be downward, recent weeks have brought volatility,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Ralph Mclaughlin told the Associated Press.
Many economists have predicted that rates will remain near 6% for the remainder of the year, before possibly dropping to about 5.8% next year, as NPR reported.
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said he does not expect 3% to 4% mortgage rates, like those homeowners took advantage of over the past decade, to return anytime in the near future.
“I think the new normal is maybe 6% mortgage rate,” Yun told NPR. “If we are lucky, maybe we get to 5.5% mortgage rate. Or if we are unlucky, maybe the mortgage rate trends back up towards 7%.”