Experts Predict Texas Rent Drop

Real Estate

For Rent sign. | Image by Nick Youngson CC BY-SA 3.0 Alpha Stock Images

Over the course of the past two years, rent has gone up in regions of North Texas and the rest of the country. However, a real estate expert who spoke with NBC 5 said these prices could flatten in upcoming months.

Jay Parsons, the Head of Economics & Industry Principals with RealPage, claimed a decrease in rent demand could lead to a decrease in rent prices. Parsons predicted a change as soon as this winter. 

“Over the next three or four months, I think we’ll see some discount on rents,” he told NBC 5. “I don’t think it’d be a dramatic rent cut but I do think there’ll be better deals out there that you’ll see.”

He shared that low rent demand during the holiday season makes it the best time of year to renew a lease or find a new one. 

“Just as a general consumer tip, you’re always going to get a better deal if you’re looking at times that other people are not,” Parsons said. “The winter is a period of slow demand, so you can use that in your favor. One of the things I think a lot of renters don’t understand is to be willing to be flexible on your move-in and move-out dates,” he continued.

Property managers worry about something they call exploration management, where they want to make sure they don’t have too many leases expiring at the same time that causes too much vacancy. So, they’re usually going to offer you a lower monthly rent in exchange for a lease term length that may not be ideal. Maybe it’s an 11-month lease, or maybe it’s a 14-month lease. You can find a better deal if you’re willing to be more flexible,” Parsons advised. 

The cause that led to such high rent prices is attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Parsons stated that as North Texans and those around the country had stimulus money to spend, prices started to incline. There was a higher demand for rentals as well in 2021.

Parsons told NBC 5 that the result was an increase in rent costs and home prices. 

“We had this perfect storm of events when COVID hit,” he said. “We had this work from anywhere phenomenon. People moving around. Most people had more money than they had before thanks to stimulus, thanks to wage growth. We saw more demand for rentals in 2021 than any year in the three decades we’ve tracked the rental housing market.”

Parsons said that in 2022 consumers are more nervous to spend, causing a lack of demand and flat line, or decline, in prices. He recalls that 2021 was not like any other year. 

“2021 is a year that we’ll probably never see anything like that again, anytime soon. Maybe in our lifetimes,” Parsons said. 

Even with Parsons’s predictions, Dallas ranked fourth for urban areas with the worst rental gains, The Dallas Express previously reported. The ranking came from Yardi Systems. In the month of August, rent prices in the Dallas Fort Worth region rose as national prices dropped slightly. 

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