Home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area saw their first annual decline in more than a decade, according to a new report.
Prices fell 1.2% in March from a year earlier, marking the first year-over-year decline since February 2012, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index report released last Tuesday.
Calculated monthly, the Case-Shiller National Home Price (NSA) Index is “a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions.” It is the leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices nationally.
Even though home prices in DFW saw their first year-over-year decline in more than 10 years, the decline pales in comparison to the region’s unprecedented growth rate and rapid home price appreciation over the last decade.
The Texas Quarterly Housing Report shows that the median home price in DFW was $385,000 in the first quarter of 2023, a 1.5% increase compared to last year.
The rapid rise in single-family home prices was illustrated in a recent study by real estate brokerage firm Home Bay, which found that home prices exceeded inflation by more than 200% since 2020.
While the residential real estate market in DFW remains hot, the metroplex has been unable to dodge the broader downtrend spurred by stubbornly high inflation, burdensome mortgage rates, economic tightening, and general recessionary fears.
Although DFW saw a non-seasonally adjusted price increase of 1.1% from February to March, the metro actually experienced a -0.1% decrease when adjusted for seasonality and inflation, data presented in the index shows. Home prices were flat during the prior month but declined by -0.3% when seasonally adjusted.
Meanwhile, Case-Shiller’s National Composite rose 1.3% in March and now stands only 3.6% below its June 2022 peak. The 10- and 20-City Composites also performed well, with March gains of 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, according to Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI.
“Two months of increasing prices do not a definitive recovery make, but March’s results suggest that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 may have come to an end,” said Lazzara in the report.
“That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months,” he added.
In total, 19 out of 20 cities reported lower prices in the year ending March 2023 compared to the year ending February 2023, with only Chicago showing an increase of 0.4%, according to the report.
Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in March. Miami led the way with a 7.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 4.8% increase, and Charlotte with a 4.7% increase.
Not every real estate market moves at the same pace, with markets in the western part of the country seeing the weakest prices, Lazzara noted in the report.
“One of the most interesting aspects of our report continues to lie in its stark regional differences,” he said. “The farther west we look, the weaker prices are, with Seattle (-12.4%) now leading San Francisco (-11.2%) at the bottom of the league table. It’s unsurprising that the Southeast (+5.4%) remains the country’s strongest region, while the West (-6.2%) remains the weakest.”