The DFW area came in near the bottom of a top 100 list of housing markets primed for growth in the coming year.
Realtor.com ranked the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area 96 out of 100, according to its 2024 Top Housing Markets forecast.
Despite the high-interest rate environment and challenging homebuying landscape, Realtor.com found that nearly half of first-time home buyers (49%) see buying as a better option than renting in 2024. Furthermore, roughly three-quarters (76%) see the dream of home ownership as realistic and obtainable in 2024.
According to the report, this is mainly due to many first-time buyers setting aside significant savings for the purchase. On average, first-time home buyers looking to buy a home over the next year have been saving around $800 per month for just over two years.
“Now that we’re seeing the beginning of an affordability turnaround, home buyers are still looking for markets where they can capitalize on lower prices,” said Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale. “Even in some of the more expensive markets, we’ll see double-digit sales growth as sales start to rebound from their historic lows, helped by mortgage rates, which are expected to finally relent.”
Realtor.com sourced data from an October 2023 survey of 5,012 U.S. respondents aged 18 and up. Surprisingly, nearly all of the respondents (95%) said they feel they will be able to afford a home within their lifetime, with 40% saying they will be able to afford one within the next year.
Easing price pressures in 2024 from lower mortgage rates and increased housing supply should help with housing affordability, data suggests.
However, the number of existing home sales in DFW is forecast to drop 12.9% year-over-year in 2024. Meanwhile, the median sale price for an existing home is expected to fall 8.4% year-over-year. Overall, the housing market in DFW is predicted to drop 21.4% based on combined projections for existing home sales and price growth in 2024.
For comparison, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metro area is expected to drop 23.9% year-over-year in 2024, while El Paso is expected to grow 10.9%, data in the report shows.
Texas housing markets that outperformed DFW (No. 96) in the report include the San Antonio-New Braunfels metro area (No. 94), Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land (No. 88), McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (No. 51), and El Paso (No. 14). The Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metro area ranked just behind DFW, falling at No.98.