According to those willing to put their money on the line, former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race has grown.
According to Polymarket, Trump led Harris by almost 20 points at the time this article was written (1 p.m., October 16). Trump has climbed to 59.4%, while Harris has fallen to 40.6%.
The Dallas Express previously reported that the market odds of Trump being elected again suddenly broke in his favor around October 7. At that time, the 45th president’s lead was 9 points, as he took 54% to Harris’s 45%.
Trump maintained this lead for over a week until this most recent seismic shift in the odds.
Polymarket is not a traditional betting website, although the distinctions would not likely be important to the casual observer. Instead of standing in a smoky betting parlor and placing money on dogs or horses, users “trade” as if they are on the stock market, on the possibilities of certain events.
“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No,”‘ the Presidential Election Winner 2024 rules section reads.
Later, the section adds, “The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.”
This shift comes as Trump has enjoyed a positive news cycle after a successful appearance defending his economic policy during an interview with Bloomberg in Chicago on October 15 and a women’s town hall event in Georgia with Fox News the following morning.
A leaked PAC poll also recently showed Trump outperforming Republican senatorial candidates, including struggling U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, The Dallas Express reported.
Simultaneously, Harris has suffered as she has failed to gain the support of men, and her outreach efforts to men of every race have backfired from pro-Harris groups, DX reported.
However, Harris will have an opportunity to triage her losses during an interview with Fox News’s Brett Baier on October 16.