More and more people appear to be putting their money on former President Donald Trump to win the presidential election.
The odds of Trump becoming president suddenly broke in the candidate’s favor around 10 a.m. on Oct. 7, according to Polymarket. The 45th president’s lead in the odds widened to 9 points as he took 54% to Harris’s 45%. He has maintained a 5-7 point lead ever since.
“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No,'” the description of the market says.
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate,” it adds. “If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (Jan. 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.”
This development comes after two weeks of a Trump lead that hovered around one point. The market has been tight for much of the late summer, with Harris enjoying a series of bumps that began with President Biden stepping aside and her ascent to her party’s presidential nominee, her selection of her running mate, the Democrat National Convention, and the second presidential debate.
Each of these events occurred from late July through early September, and at times Harris had varying degrees of a lead in August and September.
Polymarket is not a betting website in the traditional sense. It is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcome of current events, much like stock traders do with the stock market. Traders use cryptocurrency to purchase and trade shares that represent the likelihood of certain events occurring in the future.
The increase in Trump’s lead has co-occurred with a tough week for the Biden-Harris administration. A devastating hurricane moved through North Carolina and other states, killing many and destroying untold amounts of land and property.
There is a prevailing narrative in some circles that there is insufficient support going to the region because the Biden-Harris Administration spent Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) dollars housing illegal immigrants.
The corporate press has challenged this narrative. Yahoo News recently ran the headline, “FEMA Did Not Spend Emergency Relief Funds to House Illegal Immigrants.” To buttress this point, the outlet nixed the allegation as untrue because FEMA allegedly has separate funds for illegal aliens and disaster relief.
However, some critics disagree and the article has not neutralized the public perception that the federal government takes care of illegal aliens before citizens.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has tried to make a similar point to the Yahoo article before the White House Press Pool. However, outlets like Fox News are quick to point to comments she reportedly made in 2022 when she apparently said FEMA resources were available to illegal immigrants.
As the effect of Hurricane Helene plays out on Harris’s odds on Polymarket, another Hurricane named Milton now heads toward Florida.
