A New York Times poll released Sunday shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by one percentage point.
The poll shows Trump besting Harris 48% to 47% in a two-way race and 47% to 45% in a race including third-party candidates.
Election analyst Nate Silver’s presidential forecast after the poll’s release gave Trump a 63.8% chance of winning.
Silver’s model revealed Trump as a favorite in every swing state, with a 77% chance in Arizona, 75% in North Carolina, 68% in Georgia, 64% in Pennsylvania, 61% in Nevada, 54% in Michigan, and 53% in Wisconsin.
Harris still leads Trump by 1.3 percentage points in RealClearPolitics’ aggregate of national polls. Recent polls show results varying from Harris leading by three percentage points to Trump leading by one percentage point.
Trump led President Joe Biden by three percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average before the president ended his campaign and endorsed Harris. The vice president quickly erased Trump’s lead but did not seem to receive a significant boost after the Democratic National Convention last month.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy ended his presidential campaign last month and endorsed Trump.
The first presidential debate between Trump and Harris is Tuesday night.
Betting markets show Trump as a slight favorite over Harris in the electoral college, according to electionbettingodds.com.
Only 30% of respondents to the New York Times/Sienna poll released on Sunday said they believe the country is on the right track, while 60% said it is moving in the wrong direction. However, 71% of respondents said they are optimistic the country can get back on track over the next decade.
The poll found respondents are not fond of either Trump or Harris. The vice president had a 46% favorable and 51% unfavorable rating, while Trump had a 46% favorable and a 52% unfavorable rating.
However, 81% of respondents said they were enthusiastic about voting in November. Another 69% said this year is the most important election of their lifetime.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they need to learn more about Harris’ policy proposals, and less than half said the same about Trump.
Harris released her policy platform on her campaign website Monday, nearly two months into her campaign. The platform included proposals to enable abortion, enforce gun control measures, expand mail-in voting, and implement term limits for Supreme Court justices.
Harris represents “more of the same,” according to 55% of the respondents in the New York Times poll, while 25% said she represents major change, and 15% said she represents minor change. Trump represents a major change, according to 53% of the poll respondents, while 8% said he represents a minor change, and 34% said he represents “more of the same.”