Former President Donald Trump leads the RealClearPolitics polling data aggregator by an average of 2.3 points as the United States heads into the new year and the 2024 presidential election.
RealClearPolitics (RCP) is a news website that maintains a useful compilation of trustworthy polls and averages them out over a month to give voters and observers a snapshot of where a political race stands at a particular point in time.
From November 8 to December 12, RCP found that Donald Trump was leading in 11 national polls, losing two to Joe Biden and ending up tied in one. The average of the 14 polls found that Trump was leading the 2024 election by an average of 2.3 points.
This is notable because, at this same point in 2015, Trump was losing to then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 4.3 points. In December of 2019, Trump was trailing Biden by 7.5 points.
The polling reflects deep dissatisfaction with President Biden’s first term in office. Voters have expressed continued frustration with the state of the U.S economy, inflation, and Biden’s record-high age, according to CNN.
Still, Trump has high negatives of his own to overcome. Voters are concerned with Trump’s perceived divisiveness and belligerent tone.
Still, RCP and many political observers are failing to account for the wrench that Robert Kennedy Jr.’s third-party candidacy could throw into the election. Recent polls show that Kennedy is polling at levels not seen since Dallas’ Ross Perot’s insurgent third-party bid in 1992 against then- Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton and incumbent President from Texas George H.W. Bush. Perot finished with 18.9% of the popular vote and was blamed by the Bush campaign for costing the Republican Party the general election. Kennedy has reached as high as 22% in some recent polls.
Biden and Trump will have to wrap up their primary elections in the coming months. Both men are widely expected to easily prevail in their respective races.
The 2024 General Election is slated for November 5, 2024.