One of the country’s most accurate pollsters said former President Donald Trump is “having a moment” and “looks good” ahead of the 2024 election.
Raghavan Mayur runs the TIPP poll, which has been deemed one of, if not the most accurate survey in presidential elections. His final poll in 2020 had Biden up by 4 percentage points, just half a point off the final result. He was within 1.1 points of the final result in 2016.
Mayur attributes this success to his independent, entrepreneurial approach.
“The mainstream pollsters don’t have to get it right. Whether they get it right or not, they are going to be in business — they are going to be supported,” Mayur told The Dallas Express. “For me, I am a small business guy. It really makes a difference. The penalty is much more severe for me.”
The March TIPP poll shows President Biden leading by 1 percentage point in a head-to-head matchup against Trump and a tie when third-party candidates are included. The result is titled slightly towards the former president as the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate shows Trump leading by 1 percentage point.
The most recent TIPP poll contrasts with the previous two elections, where the company correctly favored Trump’s polling more than the aggregate data. Mayur said these results will likely fluctuate as the election nears but noted that Trump is in a strong position.
“I have a feeling that Trump can lose the popular vote by about five points and still win the election,” he told DX. “I don’t see Trump as a party guy. He attracts people from all over. I think he will attract blacks, Hispanics, and union voters, but I’m not sure how the abortion issue will play.”
Mayur noted that polling data shows the abortion issue poses challenges for Republicans this year as it did in the 2022 midterm elections. However, he said Trump has several factors working in his favor. Voters, Mayur said, believe the country was stronger under Trump and are sympathetic with the former president as he faces prosecution from his political enemies.
“I think Trump will be stronger if he is convicted,” Mayur told DX.
Mayur emphasized immigration as a clear winning issue for Trump, as well as the economy and crime.
The polling industry has faced challenges in recent decades as responses to phone calls have steadily decreased. Online polls have emerged as an alternative approach, but Mayur said the key is to find a balance between the two.
“You need calls for people 70 and over,” he told DX. “You can only reach them by telephone. And you cannot get the young people on the telephone, so you have to utilize the internet.”
Mayur, an immigrant from India, said he is confident his success will continue as the polling industry faces new challenges. This confidence, he said, stems from his devout Hindu faith.
“It’s the power of prayer,” Mayur told DX. “I am just an ordinary human being.