On Monday, U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Michael Carpenter warned of “highly credible” intelligence reports that Russia is preparing to annex two regions in eastern Ukraine and declare a third a “people’s republic.”
Carpenter made the remarks during a press conference on Russia’s political ambitions in Ukraine, particularly those centered on the south and east. He said the annexations of the self-described people’s republics in Luhansk and Donetsk could happen “sometime in mid-May.”
The reports also indicate that Russia is planning to declare the southeastern Ukrainian city of Kherson a third people’s republic. Russia currently has control of Kherson and plans to introduce the ruble as the official currency there.
“According to the most recent reports, we believe that Russia will try to annex the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ to Russia,” Carpenter said.
“What we are seeing right now is that Russia’s forces are regrouping and refocusing their effort on Ukraine’s south and east, and as we look at Russian planning, it is also being refocused on Ukraine’s south and east,” the ambassador added.
According to Carpenter, U.S. officials have “information that Russia’s initial planning included a plan for a forced capitulation of Ukraine’s democratically elected government as well as dissolution of local government structures. And that plan, to the best of our information, included plans not just for a new government in Ukraine but also for a new constitution.”
In the end, Russian forces retreated from Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv, last month without seizing control of it.
Carpenter continued by saying that Russia will likely stage “sham referenda” in Donetsk and Luhansk to “try to add a veneer of democratic or electoral legitimacy,” something he said was “straight out of the Kremlin’s playbook.”
Kherson may also see a similar referendum soon, according to reports cited by Carpenter. He warned that Russian “puppets and proxies” will likely be installed when the democratically elected authorities are ousted.
Carpenter declined to elaborate on the source of information but said that government officials are closely monitoring the situation. He added that the U.S. and its allies will not accept sham referendums and that “fabricated votes will not be considered legitimate, nor will any attempts to annex additional Ukrainian territory.”
Russia has not officially responded to Carpenter’s claims.
In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and publicly backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. Referendums were voted on in those areas, but the international community rejected the results and deemed them illegal. Since then, Russian-backed rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk have been battling against the Ukrainian army.
On February 24, a few days before commencing his “special military operation,” Putin declared the separatist Luhansk and Donetsk regions independent of Ukraine, breaking with years-long policy. His decision to do so was in response to a request from the two leaders of the areas.
Also, on Monday, Carpenter stated that during their visit to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the accompanying delegation of U.S. Congress members had conveyed a “clear statement that the United States stands with Ukraine.”
“It underscores the strong bipartisan commitment of the American people to supporting the brave people of Ukraine who are standing up to the Kremlin’s brutality,” the ambassador said.