Market odds for a Supreme Court win on Trump’s tariffs are sliding days before the highly anticipated decision.
On Tuesday morning, February 17, traders on the prediction platform Polymarket priced the chances that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of President Donald Trump’s tariffs at 25%, down from a recent peak of 33% on February 6.
A “yes” share in the market titled “Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs?” was trading at $0.25, while a “no” share cost $0.76 as of about 9:30 a.m. Central Standard Time.
The dip comes as the high court prepares to issue an opinion in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, a case challenging tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The justices heard arguments on November 5, 2025, and a decision is reportedly not expected until at least February 20, when the court returns from recess, according to a recent trade law analysis published by Freshfields.
Lower courts previously ruled against the administration. In May 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade held that the IEEPA-based tariffs were unlawful, a decision later upheld by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. The Supreme Court agreed to review the case.
If the court strikes down some or all of the IEEPA-based tariffs, importers could seek refunds, though legal analysts for Freshfields have cautioned that further litigation and administrative hurdles may follow. In December 2025, the trade court ruled that importers would not need to file separate lawsuits to preserve refund claims if the tariffs are ultimately invalidated, according to a blog post from Freshfields.
The stakes are significant. President Trump has repeatedly framed tariffs as a central plank of his economic agenda, including so-called “Liberation Day” measures announced on April 2, 2025. Advocates at the Center for Prosperous America argue in their literature that such tariffs will spur domestic investment and job growth, while critics from Brookings warn of higher costs and trade retaliation.
The potential financial implications have also extended to discussions of rebate checks funded by tariff revenue. In August 2025, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested the administration could consider returning some tariff proceeds to Americans. “The President is thinking about, look, I’ve created this value from all our people. Why not share that money with the people?” Lutnick said at the time, as previously reported by The Dallas Express.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to real-world events, with prices fluctuating based on traders’ collective expectations. While such markets can reflect sentiment, they do not determine legal outcomes.
The Supreme Court has not publicly indicated when it will release its opinion.
