Officials fear catastrophic consequences if Lake Powell water levels continue to fall, exposing more and more of Glen Canyon Dam’s concrete facade in the drought-stricken Southwest.
If water levels drop another 38 feet, the surface of the water will just graze the tops of underwater openings allowing water to pass through the dam. This could create a whirlpool and air bubbles, forcing the massive turbines generating electricity for 4.5 million people to shut down.
Lake Powell is a man-made reservoir along the Colorado River, created by the Glen Canyon Dam. This is the nation’s second-largest reservoir. The lake now stands at its lowest level since it was filled in 1967 at 26% capacity. The water elevation of the lake at the dam measured 3,633.04 feet on August 16, 2017. Water levels as of August 6 now stand at 3,535.38 feet.
At 3,490 feet, the reservoir would reach minimum power pool elevation. At this point, the dam would no longer be able to effectively generate energy.
A two-decade-long drought and low runoff conditions accelerated by climate change are attributed to have led to historically low water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead. The natural V-shape of the Glen and Boulder Canyons has done little to help since there is less water to be found the lower the level drops.
Officials warn that if water levels drop to the lowest holes of the Glen Canyon Dam, the resulting small amounts of water would result in a “dead pool,” making the dam a plug to the Colorado River rather than a regulator.
Moreover, other industries such as fisheries, water distribution, and tourism could be disrupted.
“A complete doomsday scenario,” is what Bob Martin, deputy power manager at Glen Canyon Dam, called it, according to The Washington Post.
The Department of the Interior announced in a press release in August that it would take measures to protect the Colorado River System, setting new operational standards.
According to these, Lake Powell will operate in the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier from October 1, 2022, to September 30, 2023. Officials project Lake Powell’s water surface elevation to reach 3,521.84 feet by January 1, 2023. This number is 178 feet below the full power pool at 3,700 feet and 32 feet above the minimum power pool at 3,490 feet.
The Bureau of Reclamation issued a release detailing the effects of the new operational standards on regions such as Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Arizona will receive 21% less water from the Colorado River System in 2023. Nevada will see a decrease of 8%, and Mexico will see a decrease of 7%.
According to Assistant Secretary for Water and Science Tanya Trujillo, “Every sector in every state has a responsibility to ensure that water is used with maximum efficiency. In order to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the Colorado River System and a future of uncertainty and conflict, water use in the Basin must be reduced.”
Other ways the federal government is tackling the ongoing drought include President Joe Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. This will inject $8.3 billion into the Bureau of Reclamation’s water infrastructure programs, representing a historic investment in drought resilience.
The aim, according to Deputy Secretary Tommy Beaudreau, is to use “every resource available to conserve water and ensure that irrigators, Tribes, and adjoining communities receive adequate assistance and support to build resilient communities and protect our water supplies.”
With new operational standards in place, the Bureau of Reclamation predicts that there is no chance that Lake Powell will reach a dead pool in the next five years, however, others are less optimistic.
Speaking about the water level at Lake Powell, Charles Yackulic, a research statistician, said, “If there was a line in Vegas, and I was a betting man, I think I’d probably bet we’ll go below 3,490 (the minimum power level).”
For his part, Tom Buschatzke, director of the Department of Water Resources for Arizona, thinks that it is critical to focus on the extremes of the situation rather than be overly optimistic. “We’ve got to plan for the low end,” he explained.