In an interview earlier this year, Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, delivered a sobering assessment of Earth’s future, suggesting it may not be able to support humanity for much longer.
SpaceX continues to push forward its multi-planetary colonization goals while data continues to show that a dwindling human population may be imminent – a factor that may be an obstacle in colonizing other planets in the future.
Musk told Jesse Waters in May of this year that, given Earth’s approximately 4.5 billion-year history, the planet has only about 10% of its “habitable life” remaining before the Sun’s growth renders it uninhabitable.
“Eventually, all life on Earth will be destroyed by the expanding sun,” Musk explained, inferring that in roughly 500 million years, rising temperatures could incinerate all life on the planet.
This long-term existential threat, according to Musk, shows the urgent need for humanity to become a “multiplanetary” species.
Musk would go on to describe Mars colonization as “life insurance” for civilization, with SpaceX aiming to land humans on the Red Planet as early as 2029 to establish a self-sustaining outpost.
Musk has spoken frequently about the company’s Mars missions over the past few years, but his recent statements are among the most direct claims the CEO has ever made about dwindling life on Earth.
While Musk’s warning emphasizes astronomical timelines and the Sun, it also relates to some of the most significant modern challenges humanity faces on Earth.
One of those challenges is global population decline.
According to data from the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, the global population, currently around 8 billion, is projected to peak at approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s, then stabilize and/or potentially decline. This growth is uneven, with rapid increases in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa contrasting with stagnation or declines in developing nations.
An example of these demographic shifts is Japan, where an aging population has resulted in significant economic and social changes.
One of the most striking indicators of this shift is that for over a decade, sales of adult diapers in Japan have exceeded those of baby diapers. This trend highlights the country’s declining birth rates, according to Fortune.com.
In 2023, Japan recorded just 758,631 births, according to the Nippon Communications Foundation, the lowest on record, while the elderly population continues to grow, straining healthcare systems and the country’s workforce.
This trend, often called the “silver tsunami,” highlights the risks of underpopulation that Musk himself has frequently warned about, arguing that low fertility rates pose a greater threat to civilization than overpopulation.
As populations peak, shift, and potentially decline in the future, nations like the U.S.—with Texas leading the way in space innovation—must address declining fertility rates to sustain the human capital needed for ambitious projects, such as colonizing Mars.
Musk doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. In the last two weeks alone, he has posted five times on X about the Red Planet, saying things like “Occupy Mars” and “Mars will be green with life someday.”
