Vice President Kamala Harris is now ahead of former President Donald Trump in national polls, although not by much.
The RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling data shows Harris leading Trump by one percentage point, marking a four-point swing in the weeks since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
Harris erased Trump’s previously commanding leads in the battleground states that are likely to determine the electoral college winner, however, the former president still leads RealClearPolitics’ electoral college prediction.
Trump leads in overall polling of swing states by less than one percentage point. This includes leads in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. Harris leads in Wisconsin and Michigan. In Pennsylvania, the two presidential contenders are tied.
Famed data analyst Nate Silver’s election model is giving Harris a 56% chance of victory over Trump. Meanwhile, election betting services list Harris as a slight favorite, according to ElectionBettingOdds.com.
Election polls released this week revealed varying results.
Emerson showed Harris leading Trump 50% to 46%. Rassmussen found Trump leading Harris 49% to 45%. Fox News revealed a close race, with Trump up one percentage point.
Raghavan Mayur, head of the TIPP presidential poll, which provides historically accurate predictions, told The Dallas Express earlier this month that the election “will be a tight race no matter what.” He said the Democratic National Convention next week will likely give Harris’ campaign a further boost, albeit one that will eventually wear off.
“The race will get tighter when the honeymoon is over,” Mayur told DX.
“There’s a hide-and-seek game being played. The Democrats don’t want to expose Kamala as much. They want to keep her a best-kept secret and follow the success of Biden’s 2020 basement campaign,” he added.
TIPP’s August poll showed Harris leading Trump by one percentage point in a head-to-head race. The poll found one particularly encouraging point for Trump: he led Harris among independents by three percentage points. The poll found the candidates tied in battleground states.
“Kamala Harris is night and day compared to Biden,” Mayur had told DX. “Some of the people on the fringes who departed with Biden may be coming back to the fold with Kamala. But it will be a tight race no matter what.”