Joe Biden will likely withdraw from the 2024 presidential elections “sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election,” says a JPMorgan strategist.
JPMorgan Asset Management strategist Michael Cembalest has released his list of 10 possible surprises in 2024. The list was compiled as part of the firm’s 2024 Outlook and in honor of former Market Strategist Byron Wien, who had published top 10 lists annually before dying at age 90 last year.
The U.S. dollar remaining stable and the Department of Justice/Federal Trade Commission winning a “big antitrust case” against Google, Amazon, Meta, or T-Mobile were at the top of this year’s predictions.
The third prediction foretold that President Joe Biden would withdraw sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election due to health reasons. Following his timely withdrawal from the election, Cembalest predicts Biden would “pass the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee.”
“Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening U.S. economy,” Cembalest noted in the report.
The fourth prediction was that there will be a backlash against driverless vehicles, specifically in cities where full Level 5 autonomous cars are being tested.
Cembalest noted that in the few places where full Level 5 autonomous cars are being tested (San Francisco, Austin), they have “blocked ambulances on their way to the hospital, hampered other emergency responders, caused accidents, increased congestion, and run over pedestrians.”
Broadly syndicated loan losses rising above private credit losses for the first time was the fifth prediction. In other words, Cembalest says, “the underwriting chickens come home to roost in the loan markets more so than in private credit.”
The last few predictions included the failure of Argentine dollarization if implemented, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dragging on with no ceasefire, bank stocks doing well despite fears of more collapses, and major U.S. cities facing electricity outages and/or natural gas outages.
The final prediction was that researchers will complete work on another COVID-19 vaccine — one that can be inhaled. Cembalest predicts that this vaccine will sharply reduce transmission of the virus.
