U.S. intelligence officials are warning that Iran has intensified efforts to kill Americans overseas, with suspected assassination plots reaching advanced stages in the Middle East and other countries. The warning comes as British authorities announced charges Tuesday against two men in a national-security investigation involving an air base used by American military aircraft.
The developments raise questions about the reach of Iranian intelligence operations nearly eight months after the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. Pentagon records show 21 American service member deaths across two operational categories associated with the conflict, including a 19-year-old soldier from Carrollton, Texas. However, authorities have not confirmed that the latest assassination plots extend to American soil or identified when an attack might occur.
What Does U.S. Intelligence Actually Know?
Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton sent an unclassified memorandum to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on October 23, warning that Iran had substantially increased efforts to target American personnel abroad.
“The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries,” Clayton wrote in the memorandum first obtained by Axios and subsequently reviewed by Reuters.
The memorandum does not identify intended victims, disclose the number of suspected assassination plots, or specify which countries outside the Middle East are involved.
It also does not establish whether an attack is imminent.
Clayton offered to downgrade the classification of additional intelligence so more State Department personnel could receive information about potential threats.
The warning concerns suspected Iranian activity, but the underlying intelligence has not been publicly released.
Two Charged In Britain Over Suspected Iranian Intelligence Activity
British prosecutors announced Tuesday that two men had been charged under the National Security Act following an investigation involving RAF Fairford, a military installation in Gloucestershire used by American aircraft.
Mohmed Ahmad Abdulkarim, 24, was charged with allegedly assisting a foreign intelligence service between August 31 and September 28.
Nouman Essghir, also 24, was charged with allegedly approaching, inspecting, or entering the vicinity of a prohibited location on August 22 for a purpose prejudicial to British national security.
British counterterrorism investigators believe the foreign intelligence service involved in Abdulkarim’s alleged activity was Iranian, according to an official statement issued October 27.
The investigation began after suspicious vehicles were reported near RAF Fairford on September 27. Police examined several vehicles and recovered gasoline, but found no improvised explosive devices.
The Crown Prosecution Service confirmed that both defendants were scheduled to appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on October 27.
British authorities have not established that either defendant was planning an assassination or that the alleged offenses were connected to the specific threats described in Clayton’s memorandum.
Both men are presumed innocent unless proven guilty.
How Many American Service Members Have Died?
The United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28, beginning months of military operations and retaliatory attacks across the Middle East, as The Dallas Express reported at the time.
As of October 23, the Pentagon recorded 21 American service member deaths and 865 wounded personnel across Operation Epic Fury and a separate overseas-operations category.
The Defense Department’s Operation Epic Fury records list 15 deaths:
-
Army: Eight deaths, including seven classified as hostile and one attributed to illness or injury.
-
Air Force: Six deaths, all classified as accidents.
-
Navy: One death, classified as undetermined.
-
Marine Corps and Space Force: No deaths recorded in that category.
A separate Pentagon category covering overseas operations beginning July 7 records six additional deaths: five Army personnel and one Navy member.
Four Army deaths in that category were classified as hostile. Two nonhostile deaths remained pending classification.
Together, the operational records account for 11 hostile deaths and 10 deaths classified as nonhostile or pending.
The Pentagon’s casualty summaries also reported no deaths under the missing-in-action classification. Those figures do not establish a comprehensive count of personnel who may remain missing under other administrative categories.
Carrollton Soldier Killed In Jordan Attack
One of the American service members killed during the fighting was Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas.
Gonzales died July 17 during an enemy attack at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan while serving with the Army’s 1st Battalion, 57th Air Defense Artillery Regiment.
The Army confirmed that Gonzales was supporting Operation Inherent Resolve, a mission separate from Operation Epic Fury.
Her death was previously reported by The Dallas Express, which documented the attack and growing security concerns involving American military facilities in the region.
Two other Army personnel, 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Hawaii, and Sgt. Angel Rampersad, 28, of New York, also died in the attack.
Rampersad was initially reported missing and presumed dead. Her remains were subsequently identified, resolving the uncertainty surrounding her status.
Carrollton officials later honored Gonzales during a City Council meeting, while community members organized an honor ride and vigil.
U.S. Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) also paid tribute to Gonzales during an event in Flower Mound.
Which Americans Face The Greatest Threat?
The latest intelligence warning primarily concerns American government personnel serving overseas, including diplomats and officials.
Military personnel stationed at bases exposed to Iranian missiles and drones also face documented dangers.
The July attack that killed Gonzales demonstrates the risks to soldiers assigned to air defense operations, including those stationed outside Iranian territory.
Other Americans potentially exposed to threats include civilian government employees working at diplomatic facilities and personnel assigned to institutions associated with U.S. military operations.
The State Department’s worldwide security advisory warns that Iran and groups supporting Tehran may target American interests internationally, including businesses and other U.S.-associated institutions.
However, intelligence officials have not publicly ranked military branches according to assassination risk.
A service member’s exposure depends on the location, mission, and available security protections rather than branch of service alone.
What Is Washington Doing To Protect Americans?
The State Department has reduced staffing at several diplomatic missions across the Middle East.
Nonessential personnel and eligible family members were ordered to leave American diplomatic facilities in Saudi Arabia.
Other staffing reductions were implemented at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, according to October 23 reporting.
Those embassies remained open under restricted operations.
The State Department also maintains a Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory for Iran, citing terrorism, kidnapping, wrongful detention, and other dangers.
American intelligence officials are working to share additional threat information with personnel potentially at risk.
The Pentagon has not publicly disclosed every security measure being employed at military installations.
Could Iranian Attacks Reach American Soil?
Although the October 23 intelligence warning concerns threats overseas, Iranian-linked assassination plotting inside the United States is not unprecedented.
In March, a federal jury convicted Asif Merchant, a Pakistani national trained by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, of murder-for-hire and attempting to commit an act of terrorism transcending national boundaries.
Merchant admitted that the IRGC sent him to the United States in 2024 to arrange political assassinations, according to the Justice Department’s March 6 announcement.
Federal investigators disrupted the operation after Merchant contacted individuals he believed were hired killers. Those individuals were undercover law enforcement officers.
Merchant was convicted of the conspiracy-related offenses, and no assassination occurred.
In another case, federal prosecutors announced charges in November 2024 involving an alleged Iranian-directed plot targeting President Donald Trump.
The case was previously covered by The Dallas Express.
Prosecutors alleged that Farhad Shakeri, an Iranian national, had been directed by the IRGC to develop an assassination plan targeting Trump.
A Separate Assassination Threat In North Texas
North Texas recently experienced another alleged assassination plot, although authorities have not connected it to Iran.
Federal agents arrested a 17-year-old McKinney resident October 5 after investigators identified a suspected ISIS-inspired conspiracy targeting U.S. Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas).
The teenager allegedly obtained a firearm and intended to assassinate Self on October 17, as previously reported by The Dallas Express.
Investigators believed the teenager had become radicalized through extremist material found online.
Self subsequently confirmed that he and his family were safe.
“This only strengthens my resolve. I will not back down,” Self wrote in a Facebook statement quoted by The Dallas Express.
Authorities have not established that the teenager acted under direct orders from ISIS or had any connection to Iranian intelligence.
The case illustrates a different form of terrorism concern: an alleged domestic plot inspired by extremist ideology rather than a documented operation directed by a foreign government.
Is Iran’s Threat The Same As Islamist Terrorism?
Iran’s government and organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda represent different national-security threats.
Iran is governed by a Shiite Islamist regime. Its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operates as part of the Iranian state and has been linked to overseas assassination plots, terrorism, and support for armed organizations.
Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, is among the Iranian-backed organizations designated by the United States as foreign terrorist organizations.
ISIS and al-Qaeda, by contrast, are predominantly Sunni Islamist extremist organizations with separate leadership structures and objectives.
ISIS has historically opposed Iran’s Shiite-led government.
Although Iranian-sponsored operations and ISIS-inspired attacks may both threaten Americans, they do not necessarily involve the same organizations or motivations.
Why Does Iran Want To Target Americans?
Hostility between Washington and Tehran dates back nearly five decades.
Relations deteriorated following Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, where 52 Americans were held hostage for 444 days.
Subsequent confrontations have involved Iran’s nuclear program, American sanctions, Iranian support for armed organizations, and the presence of U.S. military forces in the Middle East.
The January 2020 American strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani became another source of retaliation threats.
Federal prosecutors documented allegations that Iranian-linked operatives sought revenge for Soleimani’s death through assassination plots targeting Americans.
The confrontation escalated into direct military conflict on February 28, when American and Israeli forces launched strikes against Iranian targets.
Iran has since carried out missile and drone attacks against American military positions and regional targets.
Tehran has described American military operations and U.S. support for Israel as threats to its security and regional interests.
Washington has cited Iran’s nuclear activities, missile capabilities, and support for armed organizations as national-security concerns.
For American troops, the conflict means that military personnel stationed outside Iran may still become targets of retaliation.
What Happens Next?
President Donald Trump has raised the possibility of renewed American military strikes against Iran if diplomatic negotiations fail.
At an October 23 rally in Florida, Trump suggested that another round of Operation Epic Fury could occur unless Iran agreed to negotiations, according to Axios’ report.
The latest intelligence warning comes as Washington continues evaluating threats from Iran and Iranian-backed organizations, including the Houthis in Yemen.
The British investigation involving RAF Fairford also raises questions about the extent of suspected Iranian intelligence operations outside the Middle East.
For now, the central questions remain unanswered: Who are the intended assassination targets, how far have the plots progressed, and whether American security measures can prevent further casualties?
