In the final stretch before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a narrow edge over former President Donald Trump in several national polls, though the competition remains razor-thin in key battleground states, according to a report in Forbes.
Recent surveys reveal a highly competitive race, with both candidates locked in a near-deadlock in most polls.
The latest Morning Consult poll shows Harris leading Trump by four points, holding steady at 50%-46%, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll gives her a two-point advantage at 46%-44%. However, margins remain within typical polling errors, indicating that neither candidate can claim a clear path to victory just yet. An NBC survey released earlier in October found the two tied at 48%, further highlighting the tightness of the contest.
In crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, Harris maintains a narrow lead, but Trump has the upper hand in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. This delicate balance means any slight movement in public opinion could shift the election’s outcome. Analysts point out that battleground states, where margins are razor-thin, will likely decide the next president.
Meanwhile, enthusiasm among Democratic voters has surged since Harris entered the race, rising from 46% to 85%, according to a Monmouth University poll. This increase suggests Harris’s nomination has re-energized her party’s base, while Republican voter enthusiasm has held steady at around 71%.
Pre-debate polls showed Harris’s momentum stalling slightly, but her strong performance during the September 10 debate seems to have helped solidify support. A New York Times/Siena poll revealed 67% of voters gave positive reviews of Harris’s debate performance, while 63% of respondents in an ABC survey believed she outperformed Trump.
Despite Harris’s gains, the forecasting model from FiveThirtyEight still gives Trump a slight edge, projecting him as the winner in 53 out of 100 simulations. Political analyst Nate Silver emphasized how unpredictable the race has become, saying, “I’ve never seen an election forecast remain so close to 50/50 for this long.”
One area of concern for Harris is her shrinking lead among Latino voters. While she leads Trump 54%-40%, that margin is significantly lower than past Democratic candidates, reflecting shifting voter dynamics that could influence the race’s final outcome.
With polls this tight, political observers agree that both campaigns need to focus on swing states and voter turnout efforts in the coming days. As November 5 approaches, every vote will count in determining who claims the White House.
Assistance from Artificial Intelligence was used in creating this report.