Vice President Kamala Harris is nearly tied with former President Donald Trump in this year’s race for the White House, according to new polls.
The RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling data shows Trump leading Harris by less than one percentage point. Trump led President Joe Biden by three percentage points before the latter ended his re-election campaign.
Trump leads Harris in most swing states, according to RealClearPolitics. The former president leads in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The vice president leads in Michigan. The polling aggregate shows Trump’s electoral college lead at 297-241.
Harris leads Trump by one percentage point in a poll released Sunday by CBS News. The poll found each candidate tied in the battleground states, which are once again likely to determine the election.
The vice president gained eight percentage points with black voters in the CBS poll over Biden. The amount of registered black voters who said they would definitely vote this year also increased by 16 percentage points compared to polling conducted before Biden ended his campaign.
Respondents to the CBS poll described Harris as more cognitively fit for office than Trump but favored the former president for his policies on the economy and border security.
A Rasmussen poll released this month found that Trump leads Harris by five percentage points, which was two percentage points closer than its last poll with Biden.
Harris leads Trump by four percentage points in a Daily Kos poll conducted in July asking who respondents would vote for if the election were held today. Harris had a 43% approval rating in the survey, while Trump had a 42% rating.
Harvard’s July poll showed Trump leading Harris by four percentage points. The latest Reuters and Morning Consult polls show Harris leading by one percentage point. The Wall Street Journal and Forbes show Trump leading by two percentage points.
Famed pollster Nate Silver’s election model shows Harris leading Trump nationally by two percentage points. Harris leads Trump in each battleground state in the model.
“Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning,” Silver wrote Monday. “And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close, and a candidate is rarely out of the running.”
Trump trailed in national polls at this point in the 2020 and 2016 elections, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden led by six percentage points in 2020. Hillary Clinton led by seven percentage points.
Multiple media outlets reported Tuesday morning that Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her vice presidential running mate. Other leading contenders considered by Harris included Pennsylvania Gov.Josh Shapiro and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ).