Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 1 percentage point, according to a poll released Thursday.
The Emerson College poll showed that Harris had 49.6% support, Trump had 48.2% support, 1.2% support for other candidates, and 1% of respondents were undecided. The poll’s margin of error is three percentage points.
“The margin between the candidates has stayed the same since early September, when Harris held 49% and Trump 47%,” Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling’s executive director, said. “Harris maintains a slight edge, though less than Biden’s four-point lead in Emerson 2020 national polls at this time.”
Recent polls reveal Harris holds a slight advantage over Trump.
The vice president bested Trump by 4 percentage points in a New York Post poll, 5 percentage points in a Morning Consultant poll, and five percentage points in a Susquehanna poll. Trump led Harris by 2 percentage points in a Rasmussen poll, and a Quinnipiac poll showed a tie.
The RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling data shows Harris leading by 2.2 percentage points nationally. The model overestimated Biden’s support against Trump by nearly three percentage points in 2020.
Polling analyst Nate Silver’s election model shows Harris leading nationally by 3.5 percentage points.
President Joe Biden narrowly won the Electoral College against Trump in 2020 with a four-percentage point advantage in the national vote. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two percentage points against Trump in 2016 but lost the electoral college.
Silver’s analysis of state polling shows that Harris leads over Trump within the margin of error in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Trump holds similarly narrow leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. The predicted result would likely result in a Harris electoral college win.
Betting markets reveal Harris as a slight favorite over Trump to win the election, according to electionbettingodds.com.
The Emerson College poll released Thursday showed Harris with a 50/50 split on favorable and unfavorable ratings, while Trump’s ratings were 49% favorable and 51% unfavorable.
Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, had a 46% favorable rating, as did Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio).
The poll found Democrats hold a one percentage point lead over Republicans on the congressional ballot.
Respondents listed the economy as their top issue by a significant margin at 41%, followed by immigration at 17%, threats to democracy at 11%, abortion access at 7%, healthcare at 6%, housing affordability at 6%, and crime at 3%.
Republicans, Democrats, and Independents listed the economy as their top issue.