A former top USDA official is sounding the alarm over what he says is a looming demographic crisis in American agriculture.
Zach Ducheneaux, who served as Administrator of the Farm Service Agency (FSA) until January 2025, told The Dallas Express that a “capital fix can be part of the transition” needed to bridge the growing age gap between current farmers and potential successors.
Ducheneaux warned listeners at the Southern Family Farmers & Food Systems Conference in San Marcos on August 4 that without serious changes to how farm loans are structured and how young producers are supported, the next generation may opt out of farming entirely.
“The average ag producer is 58 years old,” Ducheneaux said, noting the number increases with every Census. “We have a disinterested next generation.”
Ducheneaux’s comments come amid renewed debate over whether America faces a genuine aging crisis in agriculture or whether the situation, as some economists argue, is overstated.
The Breakdown:
- Ducheneaux said many older producers “don’t have the opportunity to hand off” their farms to family, and may sell to developers or hunting interests instead.
- Farm sector debt is expected to exceed $3 trillion this year, with barriers to entry for young farmers including land prices, interest rates, and rising overhead.
- Critics argue the trend is consistent with other sectors and that more young farmers are entering during periods of prosperity.
- Ducheneaux said 85% of federal ag loans are repaid without issue, suggesting the system works — when designed with producers in mind.
- Calls are growing for more flexible financing, including longer amortization periods and targeted support for beginning farmers.
Ducheneaux, a former leader of the Intertribal Agriculture Council and fourth-generation rancher, said financing is a central piece of the puzzle. “Ag finance isn’t risky if you do it in such a way that it helps the interest of the producer,” he said. “Ag isn’t risky.”
He criticized conventional lenders for following a rigid system of lending to the exclusion of long-term sustainability. Ducheneaux noted that current financing typically requires repayment in 20 to 25 years, but argued that extending terms to 40 years “gives some comfort” to producers. Even if it means a 25% higher overall payment, he said, it allows them to keep more income in the near term — a critical factor in staying afloat during tight years.
Ducheneaux also wants more flexible tools, such as 40-year amortizations, first-year deferrals on repayment, and upfront favorable terms for first-time borrowers.
During his time at the FSA, Ducheneaux said he worked to “put the best deal on the table first,” using those tools and others, though earlier administrations were more limited in flexibility. The FSA, he said, should never be so restrictive “to stop producers from innovating.”
Ducheneaux also reflected on the long shadow cast by the 1980s Farm Crisis, which he said “lost a lot of good farmers.” Today’s challenges — skyrocketing land prices, consolidation, mental health shortages in rural areas, and unpredictable markets — have some experts worried that history may rhyme.
In a March 2025 FFA article, Melinda Wesley wrote that 75 of 88 Ohio counties are experiencing mental health professional shortages, and that 97% of farmers in a recent study reported symptoms of depression. “Facing a mental health crisis may mean young people decide agriculture is not worth the mental toll,” she wrote.
Meanwhile, former U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack called the latest 2022 Census of Agriculture “a wake-up call,” noting that nearly 1.3 million U.S. farmers are at or beyond retirement age. Producers under 35 now number around 300,000 — up slightly from 2017 — but not nearly enough to keep pace.
However, not everyone sees this trend as dire.
Economist Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University has argued for more than a decade that the aging farmer narrative is overstated. “The U.S. farmer population is older than the U.S. labor force, but this has been true since 1980 and likely much earlier,” Zulauf wrote in a 2013 policy brief. He notes that farmers are also becoming younger relative to the general population, and that spikes in new entrants tend to follow economic prosperity.
Still, even Zulauf acknowledges that farming is capital-intensive and that “it takes time for someone to accumulate the capital necessary to compete.” That challenge is particularly acute for first-generation producers, who cannot rely on inheritance to gain a foothold.
Calculated from FarmDoc Daily, based on 2022 census data, also showed farm consolidation continuing: The average farm size increased by 5%, while the number of total farmland acres dropped by 2%. That leaves fewer and more expensive pathways for new producers to enter the field.